TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x06bc…2887

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
92
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: World Politics, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 54 out of 100; worst WNBA at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST6714.9%10 W · 57 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 67 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$58.72
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$27
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+985.1%+$306.46
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$13.75
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$16.8
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$11.62
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$19
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$21
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$23
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$13.95
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$28
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$19
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$23
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+300.8%+$62.34
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$61
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$40.44
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$11.6
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+1,630.9%+$260.95
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$19.91
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Showing 25 of 67 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Sep 15, 2025, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+168.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $75m and $80m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.84
Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $85m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will "Hamilton" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $8.8m and $9.5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.25
Will "Weapons" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $29m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.8
Will "Weapons" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $29m and $34m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.4
Will "Freakier Friday" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $29m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.9
Will "The Bad Guys 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $19m and $22m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2025, EDT+2,051.4%+$205.14
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $125-135m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.99
All 8 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+1,326.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mikie Sherrill win by >14%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 30% or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
WNBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+703.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Han Duck-soo in jail by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+703.5%+$351.73
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Oct 10, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Belgium win on 2025-10-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$61.29
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Oct 10, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+180.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $114,000 October 6-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+180.1%+$151.29
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 17, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will GPT-5 be released on August 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Boxing: Alana vs Ari Gelibacked Geli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Sep 11, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.