TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will GPT-5 be released on August 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,657,167
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,580,663

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,657,167 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 433 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2afa…0dc7backed No0c100,171$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cfb…de50backed No0c64,600$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No2c52,922$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.651051.9%2 W · 103 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-81.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a45…0876backed No1c40,009$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-57.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x834e…8015backed No3c39,262$1,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,208.5530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb10b…ec5ebacked No0c29,150$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3a8…6b32backed No1c23,481$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe281…e7bfbacked No1c21,819$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc2f…f3c6backed No0c20,810$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked No1c20,000$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.94742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fd7…5a31backed No7c20,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,470616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-78.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No6c19,796$1,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,210.5610426.9%28 W · 76 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-25.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes78c16,663$12,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,719.418864.8%57 W · 31 L+8.4wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+14.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x221d…7207backed No2c16,349$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-78%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x237c…93ffbacked No0c14,318$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.260%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e00…ea54backed No1c13,724$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce69…3e08backed No14c12,557$1,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,761.15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick11cpaid+274.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1212…99e7backed No4c12,533$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.62922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-62.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c41…deedbacked No0c12,294$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5724…73e5backed No5c11,000$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fe1…b7e5backed No15c10,810$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-57.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x980a…bb1bbacked No0c10,771$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.99333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-33.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No13c10,559$1,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410.518543.5%37 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cde…4d03backed No0c10,500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No12c9,339$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,117.643525.7%9 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-46.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a15…68abbacked No6c8,674$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.7950%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5d…fcf1backed No2c8,669$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No6c8,510$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.386010%6 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-72.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x05b0…4966backed No5c7,669$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.59333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-54.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked No2c6,500$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.36119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick3cpaid-33.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98cc…5fd4backed No1c6,300$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.2wins-0.35per pick46cpaid-82.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4180…cf9cbacked No22c5,950$1,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,297.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No5c5,887$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.417222.2%16 W · 56 L-0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a9d…69fbbacked No2c5,737$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.79812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-57%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfeec…aa69backed No4c5,621$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.43650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d30…2690backed No7c5,547$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.97333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-47.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae22…4bb7backed No6c5,390$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f8…d7bdbacked No10c5,308$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.7740%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No18c5,259$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.362674.9%13 W · 254 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69cd…06f3backed No7c5,050$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.9170%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed No4c5,000$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.3730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf80c…ac14backed No4c4,781$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No2c4,600$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.376291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x482a…00b6backed No5c4,589$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.96911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-75.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3ab8…c0d6backed No13c4,564$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa862…46e2backed No0c4,296$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2360…1c1cbacked No14c4,269$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb67…e62abacked No12c4,200$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-59.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf156…792abacked No18c4,152$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f9…833abacked No18c4,094$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12f0…6a90backed No12c4,031$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.31040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x656e…65d2backed No3c3,835$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-52.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf60…af2dbacked No12c3,816$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450100%0 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e11…6a5abacked No13c3,798$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5e69…392ebacked No8c3,754$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28b2…ff45backed No5c3,709$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe24e…350cbacked No11c3,689$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41190%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0b8…13a2backed No16c3,675$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1918…72e3backed No13c3,671$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dfe…3a9dbacked No0c3,643$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…9f06backed No1c3,631$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6be4…f9acbacked No7c3,558$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No18c3,458$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.4640712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x78d7…d813backed No6c3,419$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No6c3,303$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.687540%30 W · 45 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfdbf…c88ebacked No5c3,142$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No4c3,106$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.651,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e78…e415backed No10c3,070$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-53.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc91b…da63backed No0c3,032$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2722…7e87backed No2c3,000$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked No5c3,000$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1441414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes78c3,000$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6504358.1%25 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6071…5b33backed No7c2,883$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9ca…198bbacked No3c2,820$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.251163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedf6…cf40backed No4c2,769$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.754146.3%19 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x454b…8bacbacked No2c2,754$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87f1…8dd4backed No1c2,753$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9362…65f5backed No7c2,748$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes80c2,677$2,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.233627.8%10 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-49.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1aef…f1ffbacked No13c2,654$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5482…c8d3backed No7c2,653$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes77c2,642$2,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.341838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5c0…d431backed No8c2,617$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6012…a6e8backed No5c2,566$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.2140%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked No14c2,500$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3504353.5%23 W · 20 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed No5c2,500$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.71250%6 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67db…bd86backed No23c2,494$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed No14c2,469$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.71643.8%7 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+166.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x01dc…577ebacked No15c2,421$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.3840%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f54…370ebacked No9c2,333$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick7cpaid+429.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a88…68b1backed No7c2,270$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e80…4dddbacked No9c2,263$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.57366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd11f…48a6backed No8c2,150$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.86333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-57.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6584…3843backed No21c2,103$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.421250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8815…e147backed No2c2,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-66%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecef…b593backed No3c2,000$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-42.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3117…0f8fbacked No19c2,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16cf…c486backed No9c2,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c6f…b3f8backed No1c2,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bb1…d44bbacked No6c1,985$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.