AI · resolved market
Will GPT-5 be released on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe3655f45ebc2b81d749b88b8f5032227f064b11b50f131d07ef3740d8d77dc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,657,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,580,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,657,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 433 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2afa…0dc7backed No | 0c | 100,171$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfb…de50backed No | 0c | 64,600$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 2c | 52,922$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.65 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a45…0876backed No | 1c | 40,009$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x834e…8015backed No | 3c | 39,262$1,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,208.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…ec5ebacked No | 0c | 29,150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a8…6b32backed No | 1c | 23,481$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked No | 1c | 21,819$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2f…f3c6backed No | 0c | 20,810$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked No | 1c | 20,000$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd7…5a31backed No | 7c | 20,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 6c | 19,796$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.56 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 78c | 16,663$12,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,719.41 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…7207backed No | 2c | 16,349$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -78%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x237c…93ffbacked No | 0c | 14,318$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e00…ea54backed No | 1c | 13,724$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 14c | 12,557$1,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,761.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +274.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1212…99e7backed No | 4c | 12,533$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.62 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c41…deedbacked No | 0c | 12,294$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5724…73e5backed No | 5c | 11,000$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe1…b7e5backed No | 15c | 10,810$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x980a…bb1bbacked No | 0c | 10,771$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 13c | 10,559$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.51 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cde…4d03backed No | 0c | 10,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 12c | 9,339$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.64 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…68abbacked No | 6c | 8,674$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5d…fcf1backed No | 2c | 8,669$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 6c | 8,510$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.38 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b0…4966backed No | 5c | 7,669$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked No | 2c | 6,500$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.36 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed No | 1c | 6,300$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.35per pick | 46cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4180…cf9cbacked No | 22c | 5,950$1,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 5c | 5,887$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.41 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…69fbbacked No | 2c | 5,737$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.79 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed No | 4c | 5,621$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d30…2690backed No | 7c | 5,547$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…4bb7backed No | 6c | 5,390$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…d7bdbacked No | 10c | 5,308$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 18c | 5,259$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.36 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69cd…06f3backed No | 7c | 5,050$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.91 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed No | 4c | 5,000$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80c…ac14backed No | 4c | 4,781$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 2c | 4,600$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.37 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…00b6backed No | 5c | 4,589$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.96 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab8…c0d6backed No | 13c | 4,564$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa862…46e2backed No | 0c | 4,296$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked No | 14c | 4,269$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…e62abacked No | 12c | 4,200$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf156…792abacked No | 18c | 4,152$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…833abacked No | 18c | 4,094$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed No | 12c | 4,031$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…65d2backed No | 3c | 3,835$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…af2dbacked No | 12c | 3,816$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e11…6a5abacked No | 13c | 3,798$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e69…392ebacked No | 8c | 3,754$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…ff45backed No | 5c | 3,709$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…350cbacked No | 11c | 3,689$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b8…13a2backed No | 16c | 3,675$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1918…72e3backed No | 13c | 3,671$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfe…3a9dbacked No | 0c | 3,643$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…9f06backed No | 1c | 3,631$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…f9acbacked No | 7c | 3,558$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 18c | 3,458$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.46 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78d7…d813backed No | 6c | 3,419$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 6c | 3,303$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.68 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked No | 5c | 3,142$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 3,106$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.65 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed No | 10c | 3,070$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…da63backed No | 0c | 3,032$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2722…7e87backed No | 2c | 3,000$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 5c | 3,000$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 78c | 3,000$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6071…5b33backed No | 7c | 2,883$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ca…198bbacked No | 3c | 2,820$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed No | 4c | 2,769$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.75 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked No | 2c | 2,754$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f1…8dd4backed No | 1c | 2,753$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…65f5backed No | 7c | 2,748$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes | 80c | 2,677$2,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.23 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aef…f1ffbacked No | 13c | 2,654$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…c8d3backed No | 7c | 2,653$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 77c | 2,642$2,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.34 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…d431backed No | 8c | 2,617$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6012…a6e8backed No | 5c | 2,566$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 14c | 2,500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed No | 5c | 2,500$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…bd86backed No | 23c | 2,494$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 14c | 2,469$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.7 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +166.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01dc…577ebacked No | 15c | 2,421$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f54…370ebacked No | 9c | 2,333$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 7cpaid | +429.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…68b1backed No | 7c | 2,270$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e80…4dddbacked No | 9c | 2,263$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11f…48a6backed No | 8c | 2,150$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…3843backed No | 21c | 2,103$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.42 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…e147backed No | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -66%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…b593backed No | 3c | 2,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3117…0f8fbacked No | 19c | 2,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…c486backed No | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6f…b3f8backed No | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb1…d44bbacked No | 6c | 1,985$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will GPT-5 be released on August 7?this page
- Will GPT-5 be released on August 10?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released on August 11?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released on August 12?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released on August 13?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released on August 14?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released on August 15 or later?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released on August 5?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released on August 6?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released on August 8?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released on August 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.