TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xdf60…af2d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
50
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Fed Rates, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Fed Rates at 60 out of 100; worst AI at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST1136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+185.7%+$92.86
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$100
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+108.3%+$260
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$540Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$540
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$48
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$135
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+257.8%+$471.83
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+34.8%+$34.78
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 11 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1060%6 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.31per pick29cpaid+91.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$70
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+354.5%+$390
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+150.3%+$450.95
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,340Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+503.8%+$6,750.83
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+203%+$1,421.21
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$200
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+61.9%+$309.4
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+37%+$184.93
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT100%0 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
GPT ads by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$120
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$126
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 19 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will GPT-5 be released on August 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$450
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2026, EST850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Dec 29, 2025, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-63.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+228.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google (GOOGL) hit $335 before 2026??backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+228.7%+$228.69
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be less than 1.0%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$60
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Diddy found guilty of sex trafficking?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$450
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA say "Cosmos" during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.