TailMyPicks
Market

AI · resolved market

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$522,255
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$332,009

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $522,255 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes4c82,015$3,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,205.062416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed Yes4c28,899$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062.758815.9%14 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa973…f0f6backed Yes19c23,583$4,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,480.77825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-67%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes3c22,929$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.01425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8648…2241backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20150%0 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30d7…707fbacked Yes13c16,782$2,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,097.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c15,193$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.421,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c12,017$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.03580%0 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes6c11,232$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.562560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes3c10,489$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.66291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dc9…cc8ebacked Yes5c8,037$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d8d…8f77backed Yes3c7,546$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.36244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-88.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5bc…8794backed Yes30c6,672$1,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,99510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b39…8d57backed Yes3c5,978$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f3c…434fbacked Yes9c5,000$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.8370%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes3c4,795$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.9124315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0019…abc7backed Yes1c4,250$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6918…b67ebacked Yes2c4,036$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c3,750$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2526312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e7…4dc1backed Yes5c3,624$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.6430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x807c…f1e3backed Yes1c3,535$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.42319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-57%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked Yes26c3,359$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.04540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-40.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe229…17eabacked Yes30c3,343$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c27…2132backed Yes13c3,221$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x70e9…adeabacked Yes7c3,171$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.4950%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e74…54e7backed Yes1c3,097$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.212313%3 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-57.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xada4…48babacked Yes1c3,001$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.57200%0 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes12c2,900$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.243215.6%5 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53c4…9522backed Yes2c2,859$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.381323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34a9…9e88backed Yes9c2,801$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.841711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-82.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf60…af2dbacked Yes5c2,719$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126100%0 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes2c2,685$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.192110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7bdd…a74dbacked Yes3c2,551$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.1330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4146…82fdbacked Yes30c2,516$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.7990%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b88…19c8backed Yes2c2,295$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.76812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-81.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc33b…2372backed Yes4c2,263$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23c4…f9dfbacked Yes1c2,207$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfafb…27eabacked Yes20c2,069$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.6944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes30c2,000$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5981931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-54.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a59…a364backed Yes4c2,000$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-72%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c2,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.521713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4827…6bb1backed Yes11c1,858$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-57.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes7c1,792$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.575420.4%11 W · 43 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bde…33d3backed Yes15c1,688$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6993…c79abacked Yes1c1,662$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.31290%0 W · 29 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf901…f69ebacked Yes20c1,514$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc61a…9544backed Yes4c1,396$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x480e…3e38backed Yes2c1,386$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-63.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb01b…e951backed Yes5c1,277$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-57.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd641…f7debacked Yes2c1,264$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201020%2 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-64%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5def…1283backed Yes19c1,200$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.52222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7557…db09backed Yes30c1,075$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes2c1,070$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.12147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-89%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes1c1,008$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.19632.3%31 W · 65 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-21.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d05…f421backed Yes1c1,005$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1150%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dc2…0933backed Yes1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes12c999.98$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6dd…d56fbacked Yes3c994.63$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5440%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa323…64cabacked Yes31c977.21$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ae8…5dc8backed Yes1c949.59$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63e3…8876backed Yes11c948.55$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.131513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf21a…1e6cbacked Yes1c943$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.641520%3 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x428a…d6c4backed Yes8c916.1$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7e0…0843backed Yes1c894.06$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x560b…85d7backed Yes1c858.96$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0860%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa314…e2c5backed Yes22c839.89$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.182416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-64.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a4e…65ddbacked Yes30c795.83$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa56f…7c77backed Yes29c788.12$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.03450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c741.81$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9457426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes2c710$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.67120%0 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bca…b60abacked Yes7c648.94$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.131127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+121.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcebf…9e38backed Yes33c623.82$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.06933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-36.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff7b…7b80backed Yes29c614.21$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b28…1252backed Yes7c585.03$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes3c571.16$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.79712.8%2 W · 69 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-66.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes13c551.89$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.617219.4%14 W · 58 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-63%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef94…f8c4backed Yes9c536.68$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-67%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa7…0b13backed Yes6c534.59$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.42650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e6b…48aabacked Yes4c518.26$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd2a…28d6backed Yes4c516.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ad2…d858backed Yes23c515.45$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes19c512.45$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7740712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x45b7…b826backed Yes26c510$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5427…bb86backed Yes6c500$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick25cpaid-7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaec0…b953backed Yes16c454.76$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.740%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e20…04e2backed Yes12c449.57$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.721546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b2a…819bbacked Yes19c425.51$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x038f…4535backed Yes25c422.5$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.91010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-67.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28c4…6024backed Yes10c407.52$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa894…945bbacked Yes28c400$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46fb…d612backed No70c400$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05ab…03cbbacked Yes25c395$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecd7…c614backed Yes7c391.14$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8960%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x856c…7e2ebacked Yes12c372.38$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-68.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4b08…8f52backed Yes25c367.35$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aac…dfadbacked Yes8c363.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301020%2 W · 8 L-3.2wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-71.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0205…82f1backed Yes28c357.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa11b…f663backed No77c354.17$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.843187.1%27 W · 4 L+5.5wins+0.18per pick69cpaid+26.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xab72…b70dbacked Yes6c353.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-77.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcabf…4e17backed Yes28c350$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.