TailMyPicks
Market

AI · resolved market

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$529,971
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$611,572

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $529,971 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 303 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf503…39e2backed No9c22,858$2,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,042.84221.4%9 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-54.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No3c12,154$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.9726312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No12c9,761$1,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,138.572560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x46b2…14f3backed No11c6,500$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.99850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6910…1779backed Yes72c6,214$4,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,747.041216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-60.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No2c5,400$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No2c4,750$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.521713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa20…9262backed Yes75c3,741$2,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.592828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed Yes70c3,500$2,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,037.491127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-58.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No15c3,383$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.725420.4%11 W · 43 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked Yes66c3,015$1,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-40.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7122…4e23backed No5c3,003$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87c7…e71dbacked Yes79c2,946$2,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.571330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-45.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No3c2,908$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.722110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed No3c2,710$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.854818.8%9 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5554…9e9fbacked Yes80c2,397$1,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No19c2,385$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.0725831.8%82 W · 176 L-14.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed No9c2,200$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.991127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No16c2,041$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.321,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x604a…da1abacked Yes79c2,000$1,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4141100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1604…ff0ebacked No18c2,000$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.99633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98e3…cddabacked No21c1,950$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f43…cf42backed Yes65c1,840$1,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.97560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed No14c1,808$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.078815.9%14 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No9c1,795$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.815950.8%30 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8951…6ceebacked Yes72c1,500$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.5850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86af…f897backed No28c1,500$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7656…194bbacked No11c1,300$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.995026%13 W · 37 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick17cpaid+44.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4980…3a28backed No26c1,167$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb38…ae5fbacked No13c1,112$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.31346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.20per pick27cpaid+20.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb94f…04d8backed No1c1,080$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No13c1,073$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.120148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xabd6…7807backed Yes72c1,040$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.011546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1281…8d51backed No15c999.98$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x038f…4535backed No28c998.33$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.631010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-67.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4827…6bb1backed No15c990.15$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-57.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf2a…5d4abacked Yes78c897.26$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.6520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-74.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x93b1…2c4ebacked No3c884.03$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-59.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4146…82fdbacked No28c877.04$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.1790%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ba0…cba6backed No13c861.95$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.221145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-20.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc10d…4532backed Yes67c849.99$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd6…a888backed Yes77c844.7$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.73076.7%23 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa822…64e6backed Yes75c800$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001020%2 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-70.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4de5…e874backed Yes80c765$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-57.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc360…dbb2backed No24c745.58$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.17742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-41.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe42d…0b89backed No9c670.75$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No6c663$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8618311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee4…fa88backed No21c657.3$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.731330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-55.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No15c649.02$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6447938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes78c646.23$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.43955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes76c600$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-56.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x63e3…8876backed No16c599.97$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80b5…9631backed Yes74c543.83$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.83250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-32%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1756…c84dbacked Yes60c502.44$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.83450%2 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x76b2…6e79backed Yes56c500$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-55.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa66b…0b8bbacked No16c489.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.44628.3%13 W · 33 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+77%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x068f…866abacked Yes71c450.49$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xada4…48babacked No18c449.94$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.24200%0 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda67…6f5bbacked Yes79c448.42$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No17c444.92$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.7625122.7%57 W · 194 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No11c437.57$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.778923.6%21 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x966e…b2febacked Yes67c435.27$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.463100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No4c409.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.46712.8%2 W · 69 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-66.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93f9…e350backed No32c409$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.88633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a59…a364backed Yes73c399.99$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1102317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-72%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x755d…6accbacked Yes76c399.2$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.825521.8%12 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-47.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x808d…ebfdbacked Yes68c395.84$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.13933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-55.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x82b5…1d1dbacked Yes78c383.05$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94a5…aec1backed Yes79c379.93$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.93560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No12c373.62$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2228828.5%82 W · 206 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa11b…f663backed Yes69c372.17$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.853187.1%27 W · 4 L+5.5wins+0.18per pick69cpaid+26.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x347b…a316backed Yes75c360$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.45633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-55.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5f7…3fd0backed Yes63c351.48$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x875d…25cfbacked No9c333.24$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a6a…449dbacked Yes78c319.28$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-36.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes80c312.88$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.888746%40 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No38c310.52$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.988041.3%33 W · 47 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No8c305$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.122626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-54.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcebf…9e38backed Yes67c301.65$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.55933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-36.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No6c296.58$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1821125.6%54 W · 157 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xebae…881fbacked Yes62c291.04$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.912100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cc2…2078backed No9c285.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-65.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No8c279.44$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3120418.6%38 W · 166 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86df…353abacked Yes69c275.36$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98fa…d698backed Yes69c274.33$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf75…f10fbacked Yes59c270.35$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.56728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No15c267.2$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5811720.5%24 W · 93 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-60.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8143…4acbbacked Yes73c267.19$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ea9…dac3backed Yes70c266.97$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc12a…dc73backed Yes76c264.24$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e0d…9989backed Yes78c256.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.412100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed5d…bc81backed Yes78c254.79$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10a6…06c6backed Yes79c253.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b8b…aa7dbacked Yes76c250$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-5.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xab72…b70dbacked Yes80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-77.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef56…618cbacked Yes73c247.36$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.362100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No32c238.68$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.337852.6%41 W · 37 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcbd…dd2abacked Yes72c229.87$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc89b…7807backed No9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bca…779dbacked Yes68c221.56$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.