AI · resolved market
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e44a8858eee7b5800ed3170b0316c442659d0b279391a3984d57149587b3590
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $529,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $611,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $529,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 303 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 9c | 22,858$2,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,042.8 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 3c | 12,154$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.97 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 12c | 9,761$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,138.57 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…14f3backed No | 11c | 6,500$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6910…1779backed Yes | 72c | 6,214$4,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,747.04 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 2c | 5,400$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 4,750$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…9262backed Yes | 75c | 3,741$2,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.59 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 70c | 3,500$2,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.49 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 15c | 3,383$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.72 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b5…f95bbacked Yes | 66c | 3,015$1,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7122…4e23backed No | 5c | 3,003$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…e71dbacked Yes | 79c | 2,946$2,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.57 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 3c | 2,908$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.72 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed No | 3c | 2,710$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…9e9fbacked Yes | 80c | 2,397$1,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 19c | 2,385$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.07 | 258 | 31.8%82 W · 176 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed No | 9c | 2,200$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 2,041$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.32 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…da1abacked Yes | 79c | 2,000$1,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…ff0ebacked No | 18c | 2,000$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e3…cddabacked No | 21c | 1,950$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f43…cf42backed Yes | 65c | 1,840$1,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed No | 14c | 1,808$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.07 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 9c | 1,795$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.81 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8951…6ceebacked Yes | 72c | 1,500$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86af…f897backed No | 28c | 1,500$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 11c | 1,300$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.99 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4980…3a28backed No | 26c | 1,167$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…ae5fbacked No | 13c | 1,112$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.3 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb94f…04d8backed No | 1c | 1,080$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 13c | 1,073$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.1 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabd6…7807backed Yes | 72c | 1,040$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.01 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1281…8d51backed No | 15c | 999.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038f…4535backed No | 28c | 998.33$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.63 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4827…6bb1backed No | 15c | 990.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2a…5d4abacked Yes | 78c | 897.26$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…2c4ebacked No | 3c | 884.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4146…82fdbacked No | 28c | 877.04$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.17 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba0…cba6backed No | 13c | 861.95$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc10d…4532backed Yes | 67c | 849.99$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…a888backed Yes | 77c | 844.7$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.7 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa822…64e6backed Yes | 75c | 800$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de5…e874backed Yes | 80c | 765$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc360…dbb2backed No | 24c | 745.58$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…0b89backed No | 9c | 670.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 6c | 663$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee4…fa88backed No | 21c | 657.3$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.73 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 15c | 649.02$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.64 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…6df3backed Yes | 78c | 646.23$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.43 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 76c | 600$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…8876backed No | 16c | 599.97$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80b5…9631backed Yes | 74c | 543.83$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1756…c84dbacked Yes | 60c | 502.44$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b2…6e79backed Yes | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked No | 16c | 489.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +77%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x068f…866abacked Yes | 71c | 450.49$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…48babacked No | 18c | 449.94$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.24 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…6f5bbacked Yes | 79c | 448.42$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 17c | 444.92$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.76 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 11c | 437.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966e…b2febacked Yes | 67c | 435.27$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked No | 4c | 409.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…e350backed No | 32c | 409$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed Yes | 73c | 399.99$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -72%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked Yes | 76c | 399.2$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.82 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x808d…ebfdbacked Yes | 68c | 395.84$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82b5…1d1dbacked Yes | 78c | 383.05$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…aec1backed Yes | 79c | 379.93$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 12c | 373.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed Yes | 69c | 372.17$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.85 | 31 | 87.1%27 W · 4 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 69cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…a316backed Yes | 75c | 360$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f7…3fd0backed Yes | 63c | 351.48$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x875d…25cfbacked No | 9c | 333.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…449dbacked Yes | 78c | 319.28$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 80c | 312.88$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.88 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 38c | 310.52$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.98 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No | 8c | 305$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcebf…9e38backed Yes | 67c | 301.65$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 6c | 296.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebae…881fbacked Yes | 62c | 291.04$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc2…2078backed No | 9c | 285.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 8c | 279.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86df…353abacked Yes | 69c | 275.36$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed Yes | 69c | 274.33$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf75…f10fbacked Yes | 59c | 270.35$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 15c | 267.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8143…4acbbacked Yes | 73c | 267.19$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…dac3backed Yes | 70c | 266.97$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…dc73backed Yes | 76c | 264.24$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0d…9989backed Yes | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5d…bc81backed Yes | 78c | 254.79$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…06c6backed Yes | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8b…aa7dbacked Yes | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…b70dbacked Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef56…618cbacked Yes | 73c | 247.36$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 32c | 238.68$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.33 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbd…dd2abacked Yes | 72c | 229.87$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89b…7807backed No | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bca…779dbacked Yes | 68c | 221.56$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?this page
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?No won
- Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?No won
- Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?No won
- Will Oracle be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?No won
- Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.