TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x966e…b2fe

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
49
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: NHL, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 56 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST1838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jazz vs. Bullsbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Raptors vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$103.72
Trail Blazers vs. Warriorsbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$170
Hawks vs. Lakersbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$90
Suns vs. Heatbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+42.9%+$45
Nuggets vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$20.63
Hornets vs. Clippers: O/U 224.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+102.1%+$51.06
Lakers vs. Kings: O/U 228.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+104.1%+$52.04
Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 220.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Jazz vs. Cavaliersbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+490.3%+$980.56
Heat vs. Thunderbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Heat vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+92.3%+$46.15
Bucks vs. Nuggetsbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$60.82
Knicks vs. Trail Blazersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+88.7%+$44.34
Nets vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$244Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+75%+$183.02
Hawks vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Jazz vs. Thunderbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 18 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-50.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Texans vs. Steelersbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+70.4%+$105.58
Chargers vs. Patriotsbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$72.54
Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+81.8%+$40.91
49ers vs. Eaglesbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Panthers vs. 49ersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+28.2%+$5.64
All 5 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+167.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
NHL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Oilers vs. Predatorsbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+108.3%+$54.17
Kraken vs. Rangersbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+368.3%+$368.25
Capitals vs. Predatorsbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+26.6%+$21
All 3 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+47.2%+$70.84
Maduro mugshot released by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+49.6%+$99.62
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Nov 24, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
St. John's Red Storm vs. Iowa State Cyclonesbacked Iowa State Cyclones · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+66.7%+$13.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick61cpaid+65.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: GAM Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3)backed GAM Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+65.3%+$7.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 12, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-01-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+53.8%+$53.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Dec 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.