Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41fb9c8712354c0407a7a768c8c933bd811d440e9de8e65ba16d080c4bc315c3

Rebuilt 38 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,561,144
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $917,787

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,561,144 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	85,668$530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530.38	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa526…ee0dbacked Yes	1c	58,035$622 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$621.83	46	13%6 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaab0…2132backed Yes	2c	36,408$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x06d6…1bb8backed Yes	1c	34,369$326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$326	61	18%11 W · 50 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39de…a94bbacked Yes	2c	32,636$543 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$542.67	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	0c	30,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9195…72a4backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf545…305bbacked Yes	0c	20,000$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c94…9768backed Yes	1c	18,930$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	2c	17,349$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.87	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	15,306$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.75	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	15,173$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.18	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x744f…d927backed Yes	2c	12,841$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	10,292$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.46	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa59e…2b99backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9916…588abacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x152d…e7bfbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd9dd…9a89backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-69.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7214…721abacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	3c	9,289$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.8	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	3c	9,271$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.36	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6de…12f7backed Yes	0c	9,175$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.4	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	8,252$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.47	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe64…7974backed Yes	1c	7,886$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.10per pick	7cpaid	+65.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe482…638bbacked Yes	1c	7,780$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf4f…eb7ebacked Yes	0c	7,068$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.25	218	27.1%59 W · 159 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-27%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	6,835$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.27	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	1c	6,191$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	5,897$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.5	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	5,774$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.39	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	5,407$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.25	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	5,404$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.92	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b2…7a86backed Yes	1c	5,190$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bfe…b127backed Yes	0c	4,760$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.12	99	25.3%25 W · 74 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	4,594$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.73	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e3…f87cbacked Yes	1c	4,527$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	27	3.7%1 W · 26 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-59.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd82f…75ffbacked Yes	1c	4,526$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.33	25	16%4 W · 21 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+42.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	8c	4,077$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	4c	4,041$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.12	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f2…1558backed Yes	1c	4,012$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	4,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes	1c	3,990$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.14	265	16.6%44 W · 221 L	+11.7wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	2c	3,884$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.25	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7266…34bfbacked Yes	1c	3,748$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.17	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	2c	3,657$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.83	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	2c	3,632$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.5	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	1c	3,602$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.34	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45be…ab8abacked Yes	0c	3,472$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.83	199	30.2%60 W · 139 L	+4.0wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	0c	3,457$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.09	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ec…154fbacked Yes	3c	3,429$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	4c	3,340$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.16	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes	0c	3,310$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.04	327	16.8%55 W · 272 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	2c	3,265$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.84	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	7c	3,139$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.32	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	2c	3,130$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.15	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dbb…3ad8backed Yes	7c	2,990$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.3	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	1c	2,963$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.49	147	15%22 W · 125 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe24c…d9d0backed Yes	1c	2,963$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.79	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+10%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	2,924$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	0c	2,807$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.07	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	5c	2,799$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.05	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x966e…b2febacked Yes	1c	2,798$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ac6abacked Yes	0c	2,700$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	60	16.7%10 W · 50 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa23f…8011backed Yes	0c	2,572$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8dc…bbf8backed Yes	1c	2,480$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.4	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes	8c	2,474$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.91	104	31.7%33 W · 71 L	+7.3wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	+125.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4523…9c64backed Yes	2c	2,455$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfb8…a958backed Yes	1c	2,424$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52d2…0d90backed Yes	1c	2,344$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.7	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+92.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes	1c	2,300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	342	15.8%54 W · 288 L	+20.9wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+32%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa5b8…7ec2backed Yes	1c	2,278$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.34per pick	16cpaid	+61.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fc9…b918backed Yes	1c	2,222$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	1c	2,200$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	2c	2,145$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.49	68	2.9%2 W · 66 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	9c	2,109$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	2c	2,100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea99…310bbacked Yes	1c	2,075$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x272f…ba8abacked Yes	1c	2,046$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.19	30	20%6 W · 24 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	1c	2,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.55	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	1,972$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.43	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes	7c	1,960$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.36	96	20.8%20 W · 76 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes	5c	1,920$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.84	92	22.8%21 W · 71 L	+7.2wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+151.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3de9…ed09backed Yes	5c	1,851$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.78	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	-59%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	1c	1,840$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.95	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	4c	1,826$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.75	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf32b…94cabacked Yes	1c	1,803$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb016…ddaebacked Yes	5c	1,728$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.35	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.15per pick	5cpaid	+428.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	5c	1,670$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf920…2febbacked Yes	1c	1,566$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-74.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c5c…ef81backed Yes	1c	1,552$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.28	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61a3…b1e5backed Yes	7c	1,497$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x346e…06a9backed Yes	3c	1,485$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.56	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x45df…6800backed Yes	1c	1,464$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ae3…539abacked Yes	2c	1,460$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5898…3dd9backed Yes	6c	1,419$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.52	61	11.5%7 W · 54 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-27%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xbb48…9e1ebacked Yes	1c	1,381$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	4c	1,380$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.63	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed Yes	5c	1,373$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	69	10.1%7 W · 62 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	6c	1,342$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	5c	1,328$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event