Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48770f562ba799c867c9848c70c90039ed5fff49576b5237c0c7d12efb5fc62b

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $678,888
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $282,036

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $678,888 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	84,772$583 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$583.19	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	22,860$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.86	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	20,443$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.27	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	1c	20,035$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.38	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	1c	20,000$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.51	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	15,884$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.88	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	15,581$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.55	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	12,764$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.21	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa90…b224backed Yes	0c	12,168$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-76.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd596…76ebbacked Yes	0c	11,000$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	31	3.2%1 W · 30 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	10,942$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.4	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	1c	9,216$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.13	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	1c	9,095$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.5	68	2.9%2 W · 66 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	1c	8,631$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.01	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	1c	6,958$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.88	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	1c	6,200$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.91	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	6,171$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.83	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	1c	5,847$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.66	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	2c	5,444$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.51	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcef6…c371backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc651…98efbacked Yes	1c	4,896$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	1c	4,781$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.32	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	4,633$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.35	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	4,579$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	4,558$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.84	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a90…2827backed Yes	2c	4,350$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.04	34	11.8%4 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	4,102$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.61	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31e3…3a62backed Yes	1c	4,100$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.4	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	1c	3,852$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.5	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes	0c	3,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	1c	3,285$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.19	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	1c	3,145$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.99	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6fe…cfd6backed Yes	2c	2,972$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.16	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x54e5…8750backed Yes	2c	2,837$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.8	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c36…36a0backed Yes	8c	2,797$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.69	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-46%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	1c	2,656$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5738…d513backed Yes	1c	2,637$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c12…b6f2backed Yes	0c	2,618$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf703…9f55backed Yes	0c	2,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1af8…0beabacked Yes	1c	2,333$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.17	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	1c	2,300$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.9	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	1c	2,240$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.31	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67a7…1facbacked Yes	2c	2,043$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	2,039$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.48	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed Yes	1c	2,019$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	69	10.1%7 W · 62 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	2,002$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.27	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecc7…01e0backed Yes	4c	1,967$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	28	3.6%1 W · 27 L	-2.5wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	2c	1,886$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.94	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes	1c	1,679$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.83	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7f09…f1c3backed Yes	1c	1,550$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.53	30	10%3 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65d4…fb31backed Yes	3c	1,516$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.91	30	20%6 W · 24 L	+2.5wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	+230.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3933…b0b5backed Yes	1c	1,487$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c66…3c2ebacked Yes	3c	1,476$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x31ed…d18cbacked Yes	4c	1,345$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	58	5.2%3 W · 55 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb3bb…9107backed Yes	2c	1,327$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.21	110	14.5%16 W · 94 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc8f…5bdebacked Yes	1c	1,250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes	1c	1,250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	183	21.9%40 W · 143 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27db…288dbacked Yes	2c	1,161$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	37	5.4%2 W · 35 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	1,006$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.12	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06d6…1bb8backed Yes	2c	999.96$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	61	18%11 W · 50 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e0e…12bdbacked Yes	2c	998.7$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.17	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-31%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc2…c55dbacked Yes	2c	910.79$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.96	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47c8…bb19backed Yes	3c	799.94$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	103	8.7%9 W · 94 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb742…8cb0backed Yes	7c	771.86$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d44…7ba3backed Yes	4c	723.63$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	57	14%8 W · 49 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfab8…c3b0backed Yes	1c	719.97$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	41	14.6%6 W · 35 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+87.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd09…abc3backed Yes	1c	677.26$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	64	6.3%4 W · 60 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f17…6eadbacked Yes	4c	676.65$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-2.3wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0912…42ffbacked Yes	6c	664.72$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58d7…10f6backed Yes	3c	547.93$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc689…7cf1backed Yes	3c	525.87$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d2a…9170backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	91	8.8%8 W · 83 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd093…4fc7backed Yes	6c	500$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.82	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	3c	464.33$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.89	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff0…20b6backed Yes	3c	407.29$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x560b…5bf9backed Yes	3c	400$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.24	50	10%5 W · 45 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	+36.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce71…671cbacked Yes	4c	373.05$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.03	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae80…ca34backed Yes	3c	329.71$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1c6…f338backed Yes	3c	328.06$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x616b…bfacbacked Yes	3c	317.97$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.72	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.09per pick	34cpaid	+40.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b6f…67e9backed Yes	7c	300$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event