Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x464b7d4bc60f91a8199e34045fe19b49f38e734ea9cbce0b309b83d870a4c92a

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 17, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $371,048
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $183,013

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $371,048 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x39de…a94bbacked Yes	0c	108,135$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.24	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	7,596$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.79	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	6,134$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.81	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	4,483$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.58	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	3,876$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.14	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	2c	3,765$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.69	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	3,614$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.77	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	3,341$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.92	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	2c	2,973$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.92	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	4c	2,899$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.99	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	2c	2,862$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.93	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	2,044$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.32	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	3c	1,995$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.71	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	3c	1,971$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.02	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed Yes	2c	1,952$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	69	10.1%7 W · 62 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	1,716$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.4	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8504…f7e3backed Yes	3c	1,563$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	1c	1,514$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.37	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	5c	1,500$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.5	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61a3…b1e5backed Yes	1c	1,478$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	1,400$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.6	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	2c	1,376$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.42	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0844…09f7backed Yes	2c	1,208$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.11per pick	9cpaid	+42.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fa0…fcc4backed Yes	4c	1,148$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.68	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	2c	1,139$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.25	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes	2c	1,083$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.67	46	6.5%3 W · 43 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	1,066$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.42	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	5c	980.33$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.31	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	2c	969.8$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.52	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	5c	953.17$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.34	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	2c	887.91$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.44	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	2c	883.95$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.81	68	2.9%2 W · 66 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	2c	853.87$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	1c	799.96$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa13…930bbacked Yes	5c	799.95$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.94	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe451…7920backed Yes	2c	793.85$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	130	11.5%15 W · 115 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	3c	699.96$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.11	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	627.21$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.77	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	581.1$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.39	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe31f…bb83backed Yes	2c	559.09$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.75	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.12per pick	13cpaid	+40.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83cc…3bcdbacked Yes	2c	541.05$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48c6…1593backed Yes	2c	539.39$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.44	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbebb…28b8backed Yes	5c	536$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.38	67	22.4%15 W · 52 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	4c	504.39$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.75	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a3a…1550backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	29	24.1%7 W · 22 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d2a…9170backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	91	8.8%8 W · 83 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53ad…872bbacked Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	41	9.8%4 W · 37 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3382…4b67backed Yes	3c	499.97$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	51	7.8%4 W · 47 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-20%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5898…3dd9backed Yes	5c	456.25$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	61	11.5%7 W · 54 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-27%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5a0f…8f06backed Yes	4c	453.66$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	4c	419.47$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes	4c	356.89$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	+7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8be…4002backed Yes	3c	353.41$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9f4…0cfcbacked Yes	4c	337.74$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	6c	329.4$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.61	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	4c	299.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	3c	299.98$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event