Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc4696c01c081834beae55f04eb852cf46e911fe63f779440390f753e9025fe9

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 19, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,141,606
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $788,581

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,141,606 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x39de…a94bbacked Yes	0c	390,242$592 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$591.79	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	23,512$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.51	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaf4…a4debacked Yes	0c	23,501$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	24	0%0 W · 24 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	21,876$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.88	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	21,274$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.18	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe464…9640backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	19,365$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.31	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8437…e449backed Yes	0c	17,568$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	0c	16,204$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce39…589bbacked Yes	0c	15,192$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.42	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f46…b5a2backed Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	10,800$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6b3…18c9backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9f3c…e85abacked Yes	0c	9,353$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	8,903$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.57	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9350…df1abacked Yes	0c	8,125$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f2e…a097backed Yes	0c	7,523$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	3c	6,808$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.5	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	2c	6,032$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.04	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	2c	5,723$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.68	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	5,532$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.74	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	2c	5,370$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.82	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	5,011$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.26	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	4,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	3,683$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.57	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	4c	3,673$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.35	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed Yes	3c	3,233$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	69	10.1%7 W · 62 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	3,216$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.01	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	2,907$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.5	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	2,633$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.01	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	2,528$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.24	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	1c	2,500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.7	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	2c	2,484$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.04	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	5c	2,483$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.02	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61a3…b1e5backed Yes	5c	2,303$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe37b…0e27backed Yes	0c	2,245$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	2c	2,026$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.51	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	7c	2,004$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.48	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe1c…3ca5backed Yes	2c	1,998$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fa0…fcc4backed Yes	5c	1,900$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.28	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4e4…f945backed Yes	3c	1,862$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.89	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,811$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.53	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	2c	1,791$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.21	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bdd…e736backed Yes	6c	1,739$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.43	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-28%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe413…32d3backed Yes	1c	1,599$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0dc…84c0backed Yes	1c	1,554$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	30	30%9 W · 21 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	1,532$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.49	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	4c	1,504$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	7c	1,500$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.2	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x860f…ab8abacked Yes	7c	1,499$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	7c	1,377$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.54	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aad…3a85backed Yes	3c	1,254$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	2c	1,237$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.61	68	2.9%2 W · 66 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	1,237$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.08	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	1c	1,206$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.05	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	2c	1,145$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.04	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	1,028$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.94	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe006…b06dbacked Yes	4c	1,000$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.94	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc73…2640backed Yes	4c	997.83$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…aa3dbacked Yes	3c	979.96$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	6c	955.28$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.41	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	5c	894.57$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.06	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47c8…bb19backed Yes	5c	806.03$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.49	103	8.7%9 W · 94 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	4c	784.51$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.6	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes	3c	769.23$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	142	16.9%24 W · 118 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b27…7bfdbacked Yes	2c	769.01$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.26	44	22.7%10 W · 34 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	16cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe451…7920backed Yes	3c	757.14$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.06	130	11.5%15 W · 115 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	3c	735.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x560b…5bf9backed Yes	2c	666$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.45	50	10%5 W · 45 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	+36.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ca…d371backed Yes	3c	654.31$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.81	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-60%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc112…2cfbbacked Yes	2c	628.19$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes	3c	593.53$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	44	27.3%12 W · 32 L	+2.6wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	6c	589.73$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.39	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc1…075ebacked Yes	4c	552.43$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	40	10%4 W · 36 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5898…3dd9backed Yes	8c	533.79$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.08	61	11.5%7 W · 54 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-27%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0844…09f7backed Yes	4c	526.25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.11per pick	9cpaid	+42.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfed0…cc4abacked Yes	2c	518.82$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.29	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	+2.5wins	+0.07per pick	19cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed64…7c2ebacked Yes	5c	517.1$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.8	91	17.6%16 W · 75 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	2c	511.43$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	7c	507.82$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.87	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a3a…1550backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	29	24.1%7 W · 22 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46fe…d0e7backed Yes	2c	500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd093…4fc7backed Yes	3c	500$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd94…52e7backed Yes	4c	488.93$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes	5c	473.89$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.74	134	30.6%41 W · 93 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c93…2bbabacked Yes	3c	426.95$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fe7…4362backed Yes	8c	417.09$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.12	90	15.6%14 W · 76 L	-4.1wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	6c	412.41$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.61	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	5c	400$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.56	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00d6…5a62backed Yes	5c	386.15$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	65	9.2%6 W · 59 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x04f5…a10ebacked Yes	7c	359.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c99…0a54backed Yes	3c	350$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-84.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0dd…f987backed Yes	8c	320.51$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	7c	300$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.3	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6830…3516backed Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-48%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b11…3a8bbacked Yes	5c	300$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.1	54	16.7%9 W · 45 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30f9…bfcabacked Yes	7c	293.14$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	137	17.5%24 W · 113 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event