Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cccd259335236ebbbb018f21219bfee84f2d37a2890813a59f3027dc7b28794

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,515,612
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $989,534

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,515,612 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 640 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes	0c	43,480$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.37	144	13.2%19 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	1c	27,029$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.49	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	9c	21,378$1,968 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,967.73	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	9c	21,353$1,966 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,966.33	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	16c	18,081$2,921 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,921.03	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	10c	16,982$1,747 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,746.8	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	6c	16,660$1,082 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,082.35	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e83…2beabacked Yes	17c	14,290$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,500.12	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	3c	13,721$411 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$411.45	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	10c	12,370$1,213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,213.42	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8852…d180backed Yes	0c	12,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	18c	10,229$1,810 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,809.84	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	1c	10,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	20c	9,580$1,912 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,911.54	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	16c	8,797$1,368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,367.9	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa526…ee0dbacked Yes	14c	8,563$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,199.93	46	13%6 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	12c	8,535$1,020 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,019.79	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	11c	8,377$961 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$960.96	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	9c	8,291$753 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$753.35	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes	10c	7,737$803 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$803.4	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	10c	7,395$773 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$773.36	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e8…db25backed Yes	7c	7,280$517 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$517.11	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	6c	7,000$406 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$405.85	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	11c	6,583$735 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$734.91	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	9c	6,471$573 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$572.95	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	14c	6,459$914 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$914.09	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	7c	6,290$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430.08	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c5a…5628backed Yes	1c	6,178$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.64	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+1.7wins	+0.24per pick	5cpaid	+255%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	6,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	19c	5,987$1,159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,159.14	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	14c	5,846$818 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$818.07	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes	6c	5,800$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$344.1	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	4c	5,711$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d77…ebf7backed Yes	6c	5,637$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.71	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x604d…1ccbbacked Yes	6c	5,436$324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324.39	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x304b…57b2backed Yes	6c	5,258$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$314.75	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+4.1wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+105%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Yes	7c	5,232$364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$364.38	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9bf…4a80backed Yes	0c	5,086$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.87	43	14%6 W · 37 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	21c	5,000$1,055 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,054.89	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	19c	4,899$916 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$916.05	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	13c	4,853$625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$625.44	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	15c	4,746$704 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$704.22	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31e3…3a62backed Yes	10c	4,712$475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$474.71	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7266…34bfbacked Yes	8c	4,603$378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$378.16	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	7c	4,469$326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$326.32	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	7c	4,454$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…54b3backed Yes	10c	4,444$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440.02	70	25.7%18 W · 52 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	5c	4,053$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.14	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	4,051$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.47	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	7c	3,966$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.87	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	18c	3,915$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dc5…d36abacked Yes	11c	3,872$445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$444.67	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	10c	3,855$391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$391.5	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	11c	3,842$435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$434.63	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf374…ce1abacked Yes	4c	3,800$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.5	46	37%17 W · 29 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+45.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6db6…5001backed Yes	10c	3,650$359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.49	53	13.2%7 W · 46 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+165.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked Yes	1c	3,600$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.02	128	25.8%33 W · 95 L	+7.1wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	11c	3,598$383 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$383.09	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x860f…ab8abacked Yes	8c	3,517$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.71	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes	1c	3,500$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	212	20.3%43 W · 169 L	+13.4wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+610.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	3,500$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebe7…ddf5backed Yes	12c	3,378$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-2.2wins	-0.17per pick	33cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	12c	3,368$404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$404	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes	8c	3,346$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.46	79	30.4%24 W · 55 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15b5…5122backed Yes	7c	3,273$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.35	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	+2.2wins	+0.06per pick	16cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes	10c	3,211$327 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327.48	238	19.3%46 W · 192 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-25%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	8c	3,118$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.34	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	8c	3,104$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.59	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed64…7c2ebacked Yes	12c	3,074$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.15	91	17.6%16 W · 75 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	7c	3,064$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.47	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacfb…ac3ebacked Yes	10c	2,993$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.55	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd21…3c10backed Yes	6c	2,919$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.09	80	21.3%17 W · 63 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	11c	2,889$324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$323.72	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	16c	2,776$435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x06d6…1bb8backed Yes	17c	2,753$472 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$471.63	61	18%11 W · 50 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	8c	2,722$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.5	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe209…e60dbacked Yes	18c	2,713$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$479.95	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	+55.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc77a…8546backed Yes	5c	2,700$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.7	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	+3.4wins	+0.13per pick	10cpaid	+130.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf45c…d320backed Yes	2c	2,567$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.97	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.10per pick	4cpaid	+83.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	11c	2,500$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.26	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	17c	2,436$402 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$402.21	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes	11c	2,430$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.1	96	20.8%20 W · 76 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf1e…c419backed Yes	6c	2,355$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f91…0689backed Yes	14c	2,354$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.16	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	6cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5aa…c200backed Yes	8c	2,216$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.46	158	20.9%33 W · 125 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8d1…2206backed Yes	8c	2,205$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.81	56	16.1%9 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	8c	2,190$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.8	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf4e…e3a2backed Yes	9c	2,184$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.18	99	21.2%21 W · 78 L	+8.0wins	+0.08per pick	13cpaid	+32.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9331…4b41backed Yes	14c	2,161$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	+43.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x744f…d927backed Yes	3c	2,159$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.86	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes	11c	2,142$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.81	334	15.6%52 W · 282 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ce7…04eebacked Yes	11c	2,121$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.3	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-20%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x977b…40f6backed Yes	8c	2,105$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.81	64	23.4%15 W · 49 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf4f…eb7ebacked Yes	10c	2,092$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.03	218	27.1%59 W · 159 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-27%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe24c…d9d0backed Yes	5c	2,090$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.9	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+10%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb1…9319backed Yes	20c	2,074$406 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$406.03	345	15.9%55 W · 290 L	+9.7wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed Yes	8c	2,047$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.71	233	21%49 W · 184 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	8c	2,029$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.96	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	13c	2,027$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.96	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event