Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64c94ffc4d7af3c80cbb59421a0c3faf9e3fa4c2e892aa7b3582bd232efa8a1f

Rebuilt 52 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $495,560
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $127,128

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $495,560 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	0c	61,506$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.72	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	35,554$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.55	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	27,817$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.82	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	16,859$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.6	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	1c	15,300$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.41	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	1c	14,910$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.94	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	13,233$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.05	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	11,754$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.55	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed Yes	0c	11,259$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.39	133	12.8%17 W · 116 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a90…2827backed Yes	1c	8,340$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.42	34	11.8%4 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	1c	8,066$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.35	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	1c	7,280$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.96	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	1c	6,717$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.41	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	1c	6,200$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.8	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	6,093$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.71	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	0c	5,444$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.81	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	0c	5,222$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.91	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcef6…c371backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	4,993$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.36	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	0c	4,694$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	1c	4,322$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.22	68	2.9%2 W · 66 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	1c	3,736$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.72	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	3,500$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	3,447$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.1	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	3,136$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.29	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0cc9…1938backed Yes	1c	2,905$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	1c	2,635$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.53	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd302…0311backed Yes	1c	2,627$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.79	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cc4…a9c3backed Yes	3c	2,558$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.62	23	13%3 W · 20 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	1c	2,494$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.27	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5660…27e6backed Yes	1c	2,340$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.58	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	22cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed Yes	1c	2,338$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	69	10.1%7 W · 62 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	1c	2,298$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.66	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	1c	2,193$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.45	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	1c	2,047$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.04	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	1c	1,966$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	1c	1,942$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65d4…fb31backed Yes	2c	1,730$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.47	30	20%6 W · 24 L	+2.5wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	+230.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x31ed…d18cbacked Yes	2c	1,644$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	58	5.2%3 W · 55 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x915b…2729backed Yes	1c	1,642$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	122	18.9%23 W · 99 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x78aa…c7ccbacked Yes	1c	1,603$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.13per pick	12cpaid	-39%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	1c	1,523$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe37b…0e27backed Yes	1c	1,434$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	1c	1,393$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.98	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	1c	1,375$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.27	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0dc…84c0backed Yes	1c	1,190$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	30	30%9 W · 21 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes	1c	1,153$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.97	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb364…d7a3backed Yes	1c	1,140$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.89	25	4%1 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	1,025$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.12	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06d6…1bb8backed Yes	1c	1,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.66	61	18%11 W · 50 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc2…c55dbacked Yes	2c	988.75$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.54	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37b9…e1d7backed Yes	4c	938.11$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c07…aeb0backed Yes	1c	894.08$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47c8…bb19backed Yes	2c	799.95$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	103	8.7%9 W · 94 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb742…8cb0backed Yes	3c	799.25$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	713.3$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.87	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0912…42ffbacked Yes	2c	702.55$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d44…7ba3backed Yes	2c	625$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	57	14%8 W · 49 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xae80…ca34backed Yes	2c	511.34$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d2a…9170backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	91	8.8%8 W · 83 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c66…3c2ebacked Yes	3c	384.83$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event