Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16fed648a6b943453cd331c41996cb48eb482c9b74fe98ea2622eb412d0db723

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 19, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $849,332
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $626,194

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $849,332 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x39de…a94bbacked Yes	1c	138,231$778 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$778.31	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2a1…f330backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	2c	13,989$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.98	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	12,724$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.71	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e3…f87cbacked Yes	0c	11,487$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.95	27	3.7%1 W · 26 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-59.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3255…8b47backed Yes	0c	10,643$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.66	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	10,281$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.8	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eba…1c4dbacked Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	0c	9,513$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.54	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	8,758$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.17	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	2c	8,534$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.77	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	7,925$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.01	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	7,267$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.28	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	2c	6,916$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	2c	6,910$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.79	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	6,571$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.49	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	6,493$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.61	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	5,675$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.85	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8437…e449backed Yes	1c	5,669$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6b3…18c9backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2d2…a6efbacked Yes	0c	4,706$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	4,031$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.27	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	4,000$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b2…51fabacked Yes	3c	3,748$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.79	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+48.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	8c	3,607$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	3,596$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.62	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	3,500$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.11	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	2c	3,294$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.67	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	3,254$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.95	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	2c	3,201$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.05	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	2,728$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.81	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	2,720$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.91	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fa0…fcc4backed Yes	4c	2,689$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.95	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	6c	2,637$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.26	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	2,577$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.5	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	2c	2,500$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.64	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	2c	2,397$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.25	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	1c	2,327$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.85	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	1c	2,301$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.56	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed Yes	4c	2,117$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	69	10.1%7 W · 62 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	10c	2,103$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	2c	2,093$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.41	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61a3…b1e5backed Yes	5c	2,026$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	3c	1,981$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.35	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	1c	1,900$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	3c	1,882$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	68	2.9%2 W · 66 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	5c	1,760$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.77	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3de9…ed09backed Yes	3c	1,660$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	-59%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd82f…75ffbacked Yes	1c	1,620$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	25	16%4 W · 21 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+42.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	7c	1,608$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.16	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f3c…e85abacked Yes	1c	1,586$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	7c	1,500$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	1c	1,425$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.9	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef74…8c14backed Yes	1c	1,424$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc73…2640backed Yes	6c	1,340$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.81	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	5c	1,324$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ab9…ff25backed Yes	6c	1,284$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.2	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f46…b5a2backed Yes	1c	1,222$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	6c	1,200$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.03	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5898…3dd9backed Yes	5c	1,153$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.75	61	11.5%7 W · 54 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-27%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7921…fd2fbacked Yes	1c	1,147$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0dc…84c0backed Yes	2c	1,118$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	30	30%9 W · 21 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9521…766bbacked Yes	3c	1,100$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.3	243	7%17 W · 226 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed64…7c2ebacked Yes	9c	1,023$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.22	91	17.6%16 W · 75 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	4c	1,012$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.66	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bdd…e736backed Yes	4c	1,000$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.81	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-28%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	1c	1,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x40b1…6afdbacked Yes	7c	1,000$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	7c	999.99$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x83cc…3bcdbacked Yes	6c	999.98$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	3c	988.96$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.65	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…aa3dbacked Yes	3c	940.33$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	3c	921.23$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.32	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	7c	895.15$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.66	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	892.27$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.29	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe05f…677cbacked Yes	1c	871.26$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd4e4…f945backed Yes	4c	804.09$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.58	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47c8…bb19backed Yes	8c	775.37$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.76	103	8.7%9 W · 94 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ca…d371backed Yes	4c	772.59$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.54	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-60%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f67…2fd3backed Yes	2c	753.59$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.03	60	3.3%2 W · 58 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-78.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	6c	738.32$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.06	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	2c	606.38$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e58…efdabacked Yes	8c	599.06$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.36	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+68.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad0a…7898backed Yes	5c	589.59$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.89	70	18.6%13 W · 57 L	+5.7wins	+0.08per pick	10cpaid	+104.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d70…6293backed Yes	2c	577.91$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes	4c	544.51$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	142	16.9%24 W · 118 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe73…1c5fbacked Yes	6c	540.12$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-53.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	7c	524.81$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.72	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes	3c	511.63$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	334	15.6%52 W · 282 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a3a…1550backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	29	24.1%7 W · 22 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53ad…872bbacked Yes	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	41	9.8%4 W · 37 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd093…4fc7backed Yes	4c	499.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f37…b616backed Yes	6c	499.99$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+65.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	3c	499.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes	4c	469.07$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	44	27.3%12 W · 32 L	+2.6wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x915b…2729backed Yes	3c	439.08$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	122	18.9%23 W · 99 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc66f…b7dabacked Yes	7c	424.82$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.57	65	12.3%8 W · 57 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+65.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00d6…5a62backed Yes	5c	421.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	65	9.2%6 W · 59 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	3c	413.32$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.45	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event