Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb40432ed5d4b6adeee133904c9f240dc74ed641030596f05a13943e9aa5d9c8

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,464,827
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,313,585

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,464,827 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,061 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	68c	35,584$24,140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,443.76	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	36c	22,449$8,032 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14,417.62	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	39c	19,972$7,701 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,271.15	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	33c	16,163$5,348 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,815.18	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c7d…2a6bbacked No	0c	14,420$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.42	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…2beabacked Yes	44c	14,370$6,301 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,068.55	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked No	69c	13,661$9,439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,439.31	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x821b…8b2bbacked No	0c	13,309$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	25c	13,001$3,250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,750.86	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa526…ee0dbacked Yes	11c	12,748$1,394 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,354.11	46	13%6 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	47c	10,589$4,968 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,620.54	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked No	24c	10,195$2,491 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,490.57	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf34…74e6backed No	2c	10,172$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.81	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	16c	10,003$1,599 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,403.52	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	11c	9,975$1,097 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,877.52	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	53c	9,973$5,298 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,674.81	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	39c	8,535$3,335 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,199.66	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	24c	8,299$1,962 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,336.99	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01c2…8acebacked Yes	76c	8,049$6,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,949.02	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-45%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf56b…f7c6backed No	61c	7,750$4,752 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,752.4	49	32.7%16 W · 33 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf374…ce1abacked Yes	59c	7,610$4,484 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,126.01	46	37%17 W · 29 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+45.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes	60c	7,203$4,336 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,866.94	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No	60c	7,125$4,303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,302.79	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x182f…de4fbacked No	46c	7,016$3,206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,206.13	47	55.3%26 W · 21 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed No	80c	6,981$5,571 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,571.47	89	38.2%34 W · 55 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	15c	6,811$998 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,812.76	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	8c	6,577$516 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,060.47	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dc5…d36abacked Yes	27c	6,504$1,777 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,726.35	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	52c	6,290$3,287 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,002.87	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	42c	6,193$2,631 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,562.43	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	14c	5,855$800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,055.64	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x604d…1ccbbacked Yes	52c	5,754$2,999 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,754.52	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c94…9768backed Yes	25c	5,647$1,422 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,224.97	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	19c	5,625$1,041 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,583.67	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	8c	5,500$467 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,032.8	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x992f…03cbbacked Yes	43c	5,384$2,319 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,064.5	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.57per pick	43cpaid	+132.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	8c	5,378$430 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,948.25	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	10c	5,228$513 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,714.52	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	26c	4,930$1,299 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,631.08	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa756…7beabacked Yes	8c	4,696$376 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,319.92	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	12cpaid	+237.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	47c	4,684$2,190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,494.06	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ca…960bbacked No	78c	4,659$3,655 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,655.41	108	34.3%37 W · 71 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x782a…33bcbacked Yes	44c	4,551$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,550.93	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.56per pick	44cpaid	+127.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	10c	4,549$466 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,083.08	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	31c	4,417$1,358 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,059.22	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	33c	4,412$1,454 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,957.82	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked No	53c	4,381$2,322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,322.07	134	30.6%41 W · 93 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8acf…22e4backed Yes	46c	4,355$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,354.97	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+11%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f43…b0d9backed No	0c	4,097$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.95	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	18c	4,000$715 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,285.07	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	7c	4,000$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,719.95	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	8c	3,993$314 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,679.5	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ae…a7edbacked Yes	43c	3,754$1,609 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,144.97	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.57per pick	43cpaid	+133.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	35c	3,734$1,300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,434.2	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a20…341cbacked Yes	12c	3,685$435 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,249.95	49	6.1%3 W · 46 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa871…37c6backed Yes	42c	3,659$1,550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,108.98	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.58per pick	42cpaid	+136.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	10c	3,653$375 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,277.68	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9621…a7bfbacked Yes	32c	3,640$1,166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,473.55	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	21c	3,498$752 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,746	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes	41c	3,467$1,409 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,058.31	104	31.7%33 W · 71 L	+7.3wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	+125.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd231…8c11backed Yes	36c	3,409$1,222 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,186.92	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+28%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes	69c	3,357$2,331 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,025.77	64	15.6%10 W · 54 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	41c	3,293$1,362 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,362.35	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9877…71c1backed Yes	44c	3,285$1,444 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,841.21	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.56per pick	44cpaid	+127.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes	47c	3,250$1,526 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,724.11	388	48.5%188 W · 200 L	+16.2wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x06d6…1bb8backed Yes	19c	3,181$598 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,582.7	61	18%11 W · 50 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a26…ac22backed Yes	43c	3,168$1,362 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,805.76	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.18per pick	33cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	8c	3,162$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,911.8	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31e3…3a62backed Yes	10c	3,147$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,846.65	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a1e…d2ddbacked Yes	44c	3,089$1,359 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,730.04	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.56per pick	44cpaid	+127.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	8c	3,046$244 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,802.71	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5364…c64dbacked No	48c	3,000$1,441 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,441	151	64.9%98 W · 53 L	+10.2wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c3c…8f25backed Yes	9c	2,975$262 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,712.71	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	+1.6wins	+0.06per pick	29cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeeaa…b5b3backed No	4c	2,865$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	11c	2,848$314 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,534.13	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05f4…7c4cbacked Yes	43c	2,816$1,211 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,605.24	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.57per pick	43cpaid	+132.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ceb…3656backed Yes	48c	2,813$1,360 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,452.84	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.20per pick	47cpaid	+73.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fa0…fcc4backed Yes	9c	2,700$249 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,450.65	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d77…ebf7backed Yes	14c	2,620$367 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,252.89	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb48…5186backed Yes	43c	2,606$1,121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,485.46	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.57per pick	43cpaid	+132.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	8c	2,600$211 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,388.99	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	57c	2,547$1,457 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,090.06	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x729a…92d8backed Yes	27c	2,530$683 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,846.54	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	45c	2,501$1,125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,375.56	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ebd…95f3backed Yes	16c	2,500$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,100	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	13c	2,500$336 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,164	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2ec…2eaebacked Yes	44c	2,443$1,075 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,368.14	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.56per pick	44cpaid	+127.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed No	54c	2,429$1,303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,303	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9da…792dbacked No	4c	2,372$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.79	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	-15%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1247…904ebacked Yes	43c	2,353$1,012 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,340.94	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.57per pick	43cpaid	+132.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes	54c	2,337$1,270 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,067.82	28	25%7 W · 21 L	-2.2wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	18c	2,225$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410.33	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes	26c	2,207$580 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,627.49	334	15.6%52 W · 282 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	8c	2,188$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,017.83	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No	54c	2,178$1,178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,178.19	30	60%18 W · 12 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	67cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No	22c	2,150$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$469.55	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	41c	2,150$875 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,274.7	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	7c	2,139$155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,984.35	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	8c	2,117$166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,951.5	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fff…2c36backed No	1c	2,100$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.77	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event