Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6da4b3c400d1ca5d9a854367699f9abba26e5e25ff03cf223f8a8d9e8880f1ca

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,241,294
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $380,344

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,241,294 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 230 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	0c	152,561$661 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$660.82	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	145,515$1,075 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,074.59	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	4c	31,747$1,318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,318.45	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	7c	30,192$2,139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,138.81	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf4f…eb7ebacked Yes	0c	24,905$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.7	218	27.1%59 W · 159 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-27%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	9c	20,000$1,736 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,736.03	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	10c	18,304$1,795 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,795.44	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd21…3c10backed Yes	0c	15,727$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.42	80	21.3%17 W · 63 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcaf4…a4debacked Yes	0c	13,716$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.72	24	0%0 W · 24 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	0c	12,880$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	11,900$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.9	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	11,615$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.61	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9f0…9d6bbacked Yes	0c	11,525$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	10,800$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x06d6…1bb8backed Yes	9c	10,127$935 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$934.94	61	18%11 W · 50 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ce6…de1fbacked Yes	0c	10,036$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.15	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	9,691$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390.04	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	6c	9,667$587 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$586.6	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	4c	8,963$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.66	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	1c	8,535$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.08	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	8,415$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.88	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	4c	7,645$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.12	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	4c	7,209$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.09	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ed3…0527backed Yes	0c	6,667$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-85.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	6,597$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	4c	6,465$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.53	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	13c	6,394$846 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$846.35	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc73…2640backed Yes	7c	6,333$442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$442.47	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	4c	6,237$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.25	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bfe…b127backed Yes	0c	5,856$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.97	99	25.3%25 W · 74 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	2c	5,150$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.72	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	4,738$502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$501.65	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x45be…ab8abacked Yes	0c	4,318$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	199	30.2%60 W · 139 L	+4.0wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes	11c	4,255$463 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$462.64	161	10.6%17 W · 144 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	0c	4,234$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.32	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	6c	4,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	5c	3,872$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.96	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,601$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.18	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	3,594$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.76	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	2c	3,553$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.29	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	6c	3,412$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	5c	3,408$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.15	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cc9…1938backed Yes	4c	3,308$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	7c	3,238$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.9	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	3,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	2,682$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.82	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9621…a7bfbacked Yes	3c	2,600$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xebed…e737backed Yes	6c	2,571$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.38	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-3.7wins	-0.10per pick	26cpaid	-66.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	5c	2,531$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.58	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	5c	2,531$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.06	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	6c	2,502$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.67	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	11c	2,445$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.18	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f67…2fd3backed Yes	2c	2,438$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.6	60	3.3%2 W · 58 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-78.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	11c	2,353$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47e4…28b8backed Yes	10c	2,346$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.54	83	16.9%14 W · 69 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+79.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	4c	2,300$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	2,292$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.55	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	3c	2,101$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.85	68	2.9%2 W · 66 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x977b…40f6backed Yes	1c	2,100$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.1	64	23.4%15 W · 49 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	10c	2,011$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.76	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	5c	2,000$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	2c	2,000$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,983$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.24	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe24c…d9d0backed Yes	1c	1,918$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.4	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+10%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x31e3…3a62backed Yes	3c	1,872$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.8	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9519…9739backed Yes	11c	1,871$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes	1c	1,869$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	149	23.5%35 W · 114 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	6c	1,844$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.08	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15b5…5122backed Yes	11c	1,772$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	+2.2wins	+0.06per pick	16cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed Yes	3c	1,732$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	69	10.1%7 W · 62 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes	3c	1,667$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.01	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+67.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5bf…9c11backed Yes	6c	1,660$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.5	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Yes	4c	1,600$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.6	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	10c	1,517$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.2	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf703…9f55backed Yes	2c	1,449$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	8c	1,432$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.66	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3538…c269backed Yes	11c	1,344$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1208…fe1bbacked Yes	3c	1,320$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.21	45	17.8%8 W · 37 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	+28%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee35…6c20backed Yes	2c	1,298$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	78	21.8%17 W · 61 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7248…753fbacked Yes	7c	1,252$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.2	94	10.6%10 W · 84 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	4c	1,237$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.45	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2cb0…27f8backed Yes	5c	1,200$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.3	116	18.1%21 W · 95 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+30.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	2c	1,199$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	7c	1,185$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.1	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	8c	1,179$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	9c	1,157$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.61	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67fc…8048backed Yes	3c	1,144$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.28	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.14per pick	11cpaid	+74.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d44…7ba3backed Yes	8c	1,111$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.88	57	14%8 W · 49 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x51f3…7e7fbacked Yes	8c	1,100$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb22f…29bebacked Yes	2c	1,100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.6	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c95…0775backed Yes	3c	1,100$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.85	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+73.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…298cbacked Yes	4c	1,089$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa16…0b36backed Yes	1c	1,080$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	1,078$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.59	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes	2c	1,073$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.61	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	+471%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	11c	1,000$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.23	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x60c2…8052backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf545…305bbacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event