TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf703…9f55

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
72
Categories scored
22
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: NBA, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 55 out of 100; worst Ncaa Basketball at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-41.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Loyola Chicago Ramblers: O/U 155.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$114.48
Spread: Saint Louis Billikens (-18.5)backed Loyola Chicago Ramblers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$395Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$395.14
Spread: Manhattan Jaspers (-1.5)backed Niagara Purple Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$27.2
Manhattan Jaspers vs. Niagara Purple Eaglesbacked Niagara Purple Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$576Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$576.47
Manhattan Jaspers vs. Niagara Purple Eagles: O/U 137.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$612Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+69.6%+$426.18
Manhattan Jaspers vs. Niagara Purple Eagles: O/U 136.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+79.4%+$15.88
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Maryland Terrapins: O/U 141.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$264Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$263.86
North Texas Mean Green vs. Tulane Green Wave: O/U 136.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+81.5%+$40.76
North Texas Mean Green vs. Tulane Green Wave: O/U 133.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$183.17
All 9 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+46.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST80%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$11.82
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$28
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$11.57
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$22.78
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$99.21
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$77.63
All 8 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+74.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+51.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Boxing — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Como 1907 vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$335Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$335
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-02-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$490Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+132.6%+$649.72
All 2 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivalsbacked Ninjas in Pyjamas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$442Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+112.9%+$498.45
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3)backed Weibo Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$326Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$326
All 2 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Valorant — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: 9z Team vs ALT F4 (BO3) - VCL Latin America South Group Stagebacked 9z Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+88.6%+$169.16
Valorant: Team Envy vs Evil Geniuses (BO3)backed Evil Geniuses · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,550Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$1,550
All 2 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Alverca win on 2026-02-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$194
Will FC Volendam win on 2026-02-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$392Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+63.9%+$250.33
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+51.5%+$96.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Heroic (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffsbacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$311Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+38.5%+$119.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-02-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+31.6%+$47.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Greenland 2: Migration make 25 million or more domestically by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$74.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$109.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Golden Knights vs. Ducksbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$585Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$585.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AA Estudiantes win on 2026-02-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$240.23
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 26, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$813Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$813.11
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-02-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$875Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$875.37
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.