Movies · resolved market
Will Greenland 2: Migration make 25 million or more domestically by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x723065c8c00d9321f6feb3b0ed40232080566e97f7ab80d4f754481baadf72f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x353c…2af5backed Yes | 77c | 4,100$3,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,175.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 22c | 2,965$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300.21 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 25c | 2,846$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.69 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,256$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked Yes | 19c | 2,044$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381 | 75 | 8%6 W · 69 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 1,823$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 111 | 4.5%5 W · 106 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,422$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,298$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed Yes | 7c | 1,103$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f3…9b44backed Yes | 7c | 971.54$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.01 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 822.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf703…9f55backed Yes | 10c | 717.8$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcac9…200bbacked No | 68c | 626.05$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 2c | 557.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceca…3f67backed No | 69c | 531.83$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 26c | 530.97$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.57 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 515.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked No | 32c | 506.45$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.41 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 4c | 469.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 46c | 401.37$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.71 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2f…578fbacked Yes | 76c | 315$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 31c | 314.47$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.23 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd9…d4c9backed No | 71c | 300.76$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 18c | 284.21$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829d…dffdbacked Yes | 78c | 225.6$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 9c | 156.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…acd0backed No | 26c | 151.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.46 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf937…6b43backed No | 65c | 125$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3d47backed No | 40c | 124.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.31 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…cba6backed Yes | 12c | 121.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5869…071dbacked Yes | 54c | 120$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8316…457bbacked Yes | 44c | 115.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked Yes | 80c | 113.18$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.54 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…8ea6backed No | 22c | 111.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e4…ae8fbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fec…728ebacked No | 75c | 89.87$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…7d32backed No | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes | 60c | 74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe664…bfb3backed No | 43c | 71.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 27c | 70$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes | 59c | 61.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0a…1936backed Yes | 25c | 61.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed No | 24c | 54.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…e633backed Yes | 70c | 50.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed No | 24c | 46.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x714e…beeebacked No | 24c | 46.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef3…b420backed Yes | 55c | 45.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 80c | 37.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb43f…8368backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f7…fb66backed Yes | 53c | 24.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…9103backed Yes | 53c | 21.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked No | 80c | 20.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.