Premier League · resolved market
Will Watford FC win on 2026-02-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08e7a996e97eeb0f2c813e0c6a236687ffa11507695cb3dc89f5415af4575bcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $223,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $225,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $223,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked No | 62c | 168,603$104,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64,096.01 | 153 | 44.4%68 W · 85 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d2…d196backed Yes | 38c | 119,758$45,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,508.14 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 35c | 34,844$12,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,274.25 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 38c | 16,863$6,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,388.47 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed No | 62c | 10,672$6,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,055.36 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 37c | 9,055$3,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,309.52 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed No | 62c | 9,000$5,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,420 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 27c | 4,557$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,241.66 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdd…0b07backed No | 63c | 3,000$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 77c | 2,120$1,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.43 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Yes | 38c | 2,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.99 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 38c | 1,811$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.23 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 68c | 1,471$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.78 | 154 | 70.8%109 W · 45 L | +22.5wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…2928backed Yes | 20c | 1,074$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.85 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 19cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked No | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Yes | 7c | 754.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 220 | 40.5%89 W · 131 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 58c | 705.46$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.29 | 122 | 41.8%51 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb2…9f23backed Yes | 72c | 627.92$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed No | 58c | 599.98$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.99 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 41c | 587.79$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.99 | 495 | 44.2%219 W · 276 L | -20.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 40c | 538.04$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.62 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked No | 68c | 450$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…754cbacked No | 67c | 444.64$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.64 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed No | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d2…ad14backed No | 63c | 381.73$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.24 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Yes | 39c | 370.39$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.05 | 301 | 49.5%149 W · 152 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 3c | 302.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 773 | 36.4%281 W · 492 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1110…0123backed Yes | 71c | 261.08$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.86 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 328 | 22.3%73 W · 255 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed No | 60c | 171.39$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 255 | 44.7%114 W · 141 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 61c | 165.02$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.36 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 42c | 152.57$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.97 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed No | 62c | 145.63$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.34 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b73…45d9backed No | 63c | 137.56$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 37c | 126.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 845 | 49%414 W · 431 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…5d6fbacked No | 63c | 115.12$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed No | 62c | 105$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…9a86backed Yes | 38c | 102$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cc…c029backed No | 62c | 101.67$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 11c | 100.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 452 | 24.8%112 W · 340 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8126…9d18backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 62c | 95.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Yes | 38c | 93.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9493…7988backed No | 24c | 90$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 208 | 40.9%85 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed No | 63c | 88.57$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65a6…3e59backed No | 61c | 82.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 169 | 53.3%90 W · 79 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2464…d054backed No | 62c | 82.46$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +11.6wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab0…f2d7backed No | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf703…9f55backed Yes | 76c | 80$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 60c | 78.22$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfef6…d13bbacked No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fad…374cbacked No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 21c | 74.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 515 | 16.1%83 W · 432 L | -49.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Yes | 39c | 74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x313c…61d9backed Yes | 41c | 71.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…de01backed No | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 61c | 60.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 37c | 58.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 399 | 48.4%193 W · 206 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…4c1bbacked No | 62c | 56.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Yes | 41c | 53.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 390 | 52.6%205 W · 185 L | +19.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…29b4backed Yes | 38c | 52.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf91f…5aa5backed No | 61c | 48.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a4…8234backed No | 62c | 48.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 53c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 250 | 52%130 W · 120 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 39c | 47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 282 | 42.2%119 W · 163 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…9f62backed No | 63c | 46.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4622…3fbbbacked No | 63c | 45.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 62c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 722 | 49.9%360 W · 362 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cd…61a6backed Yes | 38c | 43.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Yes | 27c | 42.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1466…3bfbbacked No | 62c | 39.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 38c | 37.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed No | 33c | 36.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…c1f2backed No | 62c | 32.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad9…5562backed No | 63c | 31.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 62c | 16.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…fe0abacked No | 62c | 16.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Watford FC win on 2026-02-14?this page
- Will Preston North End FC vs. Watford FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Preston North End FC win on 2026-02-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.