TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xbc6f…5d6f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
303
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: NFL, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 58 out of 100; worst Europa Conference League at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT23144.2%102 W · 129 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 231 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Thunder vs. Clippersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$3.58
Spread: Nuggets (-22.5)backed Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+111.5%+$11.55
Hawks vs. Cavaliersbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.16
Spread: Magic (-10.5)backed Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.58
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)backed Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.02
Rockets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+117.9%+$14.41
Thunder vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$109.41
Hawks vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.82
Bulls vs. 76ersbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.77
Spread: Raptors (-12.5)backed Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.95
Spread: Hawks (-13.5)backed Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$148.54
Spread: Hawks (-14.5)backed Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.83
Spread: Magic (-12.5)backed Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+78%+$40.04
Spurs vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.15
Spread: Raptors (-4.5)backed Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$48.98
Raptors vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+143.4%+$42.92
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$120.64
Spread: Pelicans (-4.5)backed Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.93
Spread: Pelicans (-2.5)backed Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.45
Spread: Hawks (-8.5)backed Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.65
Spread: Hawks (-9.5)backed Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.09
Spread: Thunder (-19.5)backed Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.68
Spread: Thunder (-18.5)backed Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.42
Spread: Raptors (-7.5)backed Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.35
Clippers vs. Pelicansbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.51
Showing 25 of 231 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST2944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$96.97
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$11.88
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+205.9%+$439.29
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$122.78
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+37%+$5.86
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$67.33
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$73.57
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$16.29
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$31.19
Will Everton FC win on 2026-02-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$31.09
Will Manchester City FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+25%+$21.89
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$171Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+61.3%+$104.63
Will Sheffield United FC win on 2026-02-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$23.24
Will Blackburn Rovers FC win on 2026-02-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$21.38
Will Queens Park Rangers FC win on 2026-02-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$14.86
Will Derby County FC win on 2026-02-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+156.4%+$16.75
Will Preston North End FC win on 2026-02-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$56.16
Will Watford FC win on 2026-02-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+59.1%+$42.76
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+128.3%+$92.9
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+171.4%+$32.52
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+61.3%+$53.72
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$59.38
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$19.05
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-01-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$51.42
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.21per pick48cpaid+40.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
NFL — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sam Darnold win the Super Bowl LX MVP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+75.4%+$25.88
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$455Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+44.9%+$204.25
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)backed Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+96.1%+$153.09
Patriots vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$10.33
Rams vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$14.1
Texans vs. Patriotsbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$82.83
Spread: Patriots (-3.5)backed Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$40.63
Bills vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+88.7%+$51.03
Chargers vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+53.8%+$10.77
Spread: Patriots (-3.5)backed Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+96.1%+$38.43
Spread: Eagles (-4.5)backed 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+117.5%+$47
49ers vs. Eaglesbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+233.3%+$46.67
Bills vs. Jaguarsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+117.4%+$23.48
All 13 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT1353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$167.22
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+54.3%+$29.4
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+84.7%+$72.78
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+31.9%+$5.2
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+25.5%+$5.9
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+127.3%+$12.91
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$193.77
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$307Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$307.43
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$153.95
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$44.1
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+127.3%+$65.66
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-01-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+244.8%+$124.84
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$26.71
All 13 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+19.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-48.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-02-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$267Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+94.1%+$251.27
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-02-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$43.32
All 2 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+81.8%+$61.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+36.4%+$4.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$114.58
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Moreno · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$21.44
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.