UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1048f8a95a42ba467f2c75ec663aff79fc242d5f38b4e081ee5cc6ff25c8ad37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kavanaghof Moreno, Kavanagh
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,111,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,107,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,111,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 690 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc29e…a2cabacked Moreno | 65c | 118,343$76,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76,922.93 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Kavanagh | 35c | 104,541$36,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67,951.94 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd92…6b2abacked Kavanagh | 37c | 100,000$36,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63,136.52 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Kavanagh | 34c | 91,710$31,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60,134.15 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Moreno | 63c | 90,795$57,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57,583.05 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…eb9abacked Moreno | 66c | 60,839$40,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,000 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf152…64aabacked Moreno | 65c | 51,513$33,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,368.15 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde18…83bcbacked Kavanagh | 37c | 46,434$17,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,433.83 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +163.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…6f94backed Moreno | 65c | 44,199$28,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,757.47 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86e7…613ebacked Kavanagh | 36c | 37,000$13,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,812.61 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Kavanagh | 36c | 34,310$12,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,958.53 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Kavanagh | 35c | 32,597$11,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,188.21 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Moreno | 64c | 30,000$19,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,200 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Moreno | 47c | 29,581$14,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,031.6 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5c…4302backed Moreno | 65c | 24,117$15,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,728 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…0da4backed Moreno | 56c | 21,078$11,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,757.83 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f05…c0b8backed Kavanagh | 36c | 20,000$7,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,799.99 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x44fd…b634backed Kavanagh | 34c | 18,968$6,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,449.07 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Kavanagh | 35c | 18,063$6,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,721.04 | 75 | 28%21 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Moreno | 39c | 18,061$7,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,002.69 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Moreno | 63c | 17,500$11,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,075 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Kavanagh | 36c | 17,210$6,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,014.67 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Moreno | 64c | 16,942$10,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,842.8 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce77…35d5backed Kavanagh | 68c | 15,668$10,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,951.85 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Kavanagh | 36c | 15,000$5,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,599.73 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked Moreno | 17c | 12,806$2,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,166.5 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Kavanagh | 35c | 12,600$4,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,189.93 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c8…f293backed Moreno | 63c | 11,550$7,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,276.5 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Moreno | 37c | 10,227$3,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,778.28 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Moreno | 23c | 10,168$2,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,351.88 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b8…8e25backed Moreno | 64c | 10,000$6,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,400 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Moreno | 63c | 10,000$6,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,299.94 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Moreno | 46c | 9,961$4,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,544.06 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98e1…cdcdbacked Kavanagh | 36c | 9,500$3,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,080 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Moreno | 35c | 9,330$3,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,238.73 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc740…522fbacked Moreno | 65c | 8,462$5,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Kavanagh | 36c | 8,427$3,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,421.98 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Kavanagh | 35c | 8,358$2,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,432.71 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefa3…d08bbacked Kavanagh | 80c | 8,159$6,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,659.71 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Kavanagh | 34c | 7,966$2,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,257.65 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…7eb3backed Moreno | 64c | 7,809$4,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,997.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Moreno | 64c | 7,528$4,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,817.92 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Kavanagh | 36c | 7,000$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,480 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Kavanagh | 36c | 7,000$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,479.81 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Moreno | 63c | 6,230$3,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,924.68 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Kavanagh | 61c | 6,200$3,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,415.11 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8982…59fbbacked Moreno | 65c | 6,154$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Kavanagh | 35c | 6,103$2,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,984.17 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Kavanagh | 58c | 6,100$3,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,555.87 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…eb4cbacked Kavanagh | 35c | 5,700$1,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,725.65 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Moreno | 19c | 5,617$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.71 | 159 | 39.6%63 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99aa…6c5abacked Moreno | 65c | 5,583$3,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,629 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…8e5abacked Moreno | 15c | 5,432$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.06 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…87bdbacked Moreno | 19c | 5,342$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…a35abacked Kavanagh | 62c | 5,014$3,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,886.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b6…2d92backed Kavanagh | 34c | 5,000$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,299.96 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Moreno | 56c | 4,800$2,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,683.98 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…2af1backed Moreno | 65c | 4,690$3,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,048.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Moreno | 22c | 4,600$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.23 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d9…5896backed Kavanagh | 36c | 4,400$1,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,794.38 | 142 | 37.3%53 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Kavanagh | 35c | 4,383$1,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,849.09 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Moreno | 40c | 4,237$1,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,708.13 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d80…ba3dbacked Kavanagh | 67c | 4,180$2,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.47 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Kavanagh | 36c | 4,167$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,666.67 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e47…96c6backed Moreno | 65c | 4,088$2,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,657.17 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8c…9390backed Moreno | 64c | 4,000$2,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,559.99 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…bb8fbacked Moreno | 63c | 3,850$2,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,425.49 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Kavanagh | 36c | 3,737$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,404.67 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Moreno | 64c | 3,308$2,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,117.31 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdebc…c36dbacked Moreno | 30c | 3,291$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63cc…1649backed Moreno | 65c | 3,077$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e1…60febacked Moreno | 65c | 3,077$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c31…5240backed Moreno | 66c | 3,030$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Kavanagh | 37c | 3,000$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,890 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fa…a26cbacked Kavanagh | 36c | 3,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30a3…1943backed Moreno | 64c | 3,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Moreno | 14c | 2,999$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.86 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb748…5b21backed Moreno | 32c | 2,940$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b9…ca55backed Moreno | 13c | 2,851$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…0329backed Kavanagh | 37c | 2,703$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,702.7 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed Moreno | 66c | 2,680$1,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,761.91 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Moreno | 26c | 2,440$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.9 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…bafcbacked Moreno | 58c | 2,320$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350.89 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Moreno | 10c | 2,300$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Moreno | 11c | 2,231$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.01 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Kavanagh | 36c | 2,212$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,412.03 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5f…b574backed Moreno | 66c | 2,169$1,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,437.6 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…f4dabacked Moreno | 64c | 2,150$1,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375.9 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…8078backed Kavanagh | 35c | 2,096$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,362.18 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Moreno | 36c | 2,054$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.36 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Moreno | 65c | 2,002$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.61 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Moreno | 23c | 2,000$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.58 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Kavanagh | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Moreno | 62c | 1,894$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.3 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Moreno | 64c | 1,820$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.8 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…3d2fbacked Moreno | 63c | 1,808$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.39 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…db86backed Kavanagh | 46c | 1,628$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.14 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed Kavanagh | 44c | 1,600$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.15 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c80…1c3bbacked Moreno | 65c | 1,600$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…b1a9backed Moreno | 65c | 1,538$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- Will Brandon Moreno win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Lone'er Kavanagh win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.