UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26e41d1e35dd416104ecd07c8dac68edc92e400529ce92207bcf1f19835f0ab2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Over | 50c | 1,745$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.83 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Under | 50c | 1,688$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.53 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Over | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Under | 23c | 990.52$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.82 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…dd3fbacked Under | 41c | 66.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Over | 55c | 23.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc990…80bbbacked Over | 77c | 15.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe181…066fbacked Over | 77c | 13.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)Kavanagh won
- Will Brandon Moreno win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Lone'er Kavanagh win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.