UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0388065ed90aa60176f07147e7b7c20c5b8bff4ac0bb1c7cccc58d9ca007eed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,992
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,992 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Yes | 48c | 4,444$2,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,310.68 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked No | 52c | 2,227$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.31 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88eb…9394backed No | 55c | 2,100$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.97 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…eb9abacked Yes | 52c | 1,972$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.7 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Yes | 51c | 1,933$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.5 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…8e5abacked No | 52c | 1,466$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.21 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 48c | 1,110$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.38 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…bafcbacked No | 52c | 1,060$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 49c | 902$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.72 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 43c | 832.27$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.39 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 49c | 501.96$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.5 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed No | 46c | 499.99$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Yes | 51c | 389$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.61 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 26c | 372$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.88 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Yes | 54c | 339.04$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.57 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…e115backed No | 51c | 294.04$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x307d…9163backed No | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eee…9b2bbacked No | 53c | 216$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.48 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -6.1wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…bf60backed No | 54c | 110$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…f041backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98f1…1445backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99c5…03eabacked Yes | 50c | 98.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 74c | 93.25$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 40c | 77.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146a…36fabacked No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d59…31dcbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Yes | 51c | 42.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes | 62c | 41.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +6.8wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Yes | 50c | 40.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef6…8c16backed No | 48c | 24.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x026a…f7b6backed Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3948…f81bbacked No | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a17…38b0backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +334.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)Kavanagh won
- Will Brandon Moreno win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Lone'er Kavanagh win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.