TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x88eb…9394

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
52
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Middle East, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 58 out of 100; worst Lol at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT1643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Justin Gaethje · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$940.48
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Ciryl Gane · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$484Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$503.63
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Aiemann Zahabi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Edmen Shahbazyan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,222Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,221.9
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Caranobacked Carano · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$1,011Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,010.91
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Melquizael Costa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,383Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,383
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Dooho Choi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$982Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+150%+$1,473.44
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Azamat Murzakanov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$230.93
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Joe Pyfer · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$120.44
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Charles Oliveira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$2,453Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+135.4%+$3,323.15
O/U 2.5 Roundsbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST+66.7%+$133.33
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Reinier de Ridder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$23
Fight to Go the Distance?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST+49.3%+$77.33
Will the fight be won by submission?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$280
Fight to Go the Distance?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,149.97
UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Vera · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$270
All 16 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT1553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+19.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
NHL — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Penguins vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,808Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,808.08
Bruins vs. Devilsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$290Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+244.9%+$710.08
Flames vs. Red Wingsbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$192.31
Rangers vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$436Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$435.6
Blackhawks vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$277Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+75.3%+$208.56
Senators vs. Krakenbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$184
Rangers vs. Devilsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+72.1%+$65.62
Capitals vs. Bruinsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$419Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+81.8%+$342.86
Avalanche vs. Starsbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$785Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+157.4%+$1,235.34
Spread: Kings (-1.5)backed Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Senators vs. Flamesbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+124.3%+$435.1
Lightning vs. Jetsbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$448Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$448
Jets vs. Ducksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$872Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+133.9%+$1,167.05
Wild vs. Utahbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$381Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$380.92
Sabres vs. Devilsbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+100%+$21.99
All 15 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.26per pick18cpaid+290.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,985Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,985
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$485Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+1,963.5%+$9,515.39
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+178%+$258.48
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+300%+$3,000
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$520Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+669.2%+$3,480
Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$61
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$173.71
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$499Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$498.87
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$230.04
All 9 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbacked Detroit Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.25
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Marinersbacked Seattle Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+106.4%+$67.98
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padresbacked San Diego Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.25
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astrosbacked Houston Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$57.82
All 4 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-42.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Magic vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$502Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$363.65
Hornets vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$523Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$523.5
All 3 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5)backed Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,726Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,726.42
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.