TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Card)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Martinezof Vera, Martinez
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$634,472
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$635,828

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $634,472 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 337 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdbad…9c95backed Martinez73c133,986$97,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,176.2819154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Vera27c90,000$24,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,388.4513039.2%51 W · 79 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Vera26c75,000$19,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,499.917245.8%33 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Martinez74c60,000$44,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,60019544.6%87 W · 108 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Vera8c45,690$3,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,497.828434.5%29 W · 55 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Martinez74c44,991$33,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,762.5614558.6%85 W · 60 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x44fd…b634backed Martinez73c40,234$29,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,985.523964.1%25 W · 14 L+5.1wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+28.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Vera26c40,000$10,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,399.927841%32 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Vera27c30,043$8,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,111.6111761.5%72 W · 45 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Vera27c30,000$8,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,1003043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Vera7c29,632$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,975.4715939.6%63 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Vera27c22,213$5,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,975.429151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Vera27c20,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,4005653.6%30 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Martinez73c20,000$14,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,40022259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Martinez73c20,000$14,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,399.9837152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Vera27c17,877$4,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,803.5626743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xceec…4ad9backed Vera27c14,815$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4de…0da4backed Vera27c11,111$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0002454.2%13 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Martinez74c10,811$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,810.818360.2%50 W · 33 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Martinez72c10,000$7,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,799.9916049.4%79 W · 81 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Vera26c9,615$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500.0113453%71 W · 63 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Martinez73c7,500$5,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,024.9928849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda34…01a8backed Vera27c7,466$2,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,004.875540%22 W · 33 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Vera26c7,000$1,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,829.9314530.3%44 W · 101 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd72…b6c6backed Martinez79c5,314$4,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,134.285151%26 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Vera28c5,091$1,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,413.645437%20 W · 34 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-3.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Martinez74c4,100$3,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0665244.2%23 W · 29 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5452…d448backed Vera26c4,096$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.93961.5%24 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8982…59fbbacked Martinez74c4,054$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.056055%33 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed Vera29c3,874$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,115.0515641%64 W · 92 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Vera27c3,704$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Vera17c3,663$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.465642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-19.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x99aa…6c5abacked Martinez74c3,632$2,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.431050%5 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5887…b2a1backed Vera27c3,362$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907.861612.5%2 W · 14 L-4.8wins-0.30per pick42cpaid-71.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Vera4c3,350$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.620139.8%80 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Vera17c3,219$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.385841.4%24 W · 34 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db0…f397backed Vera17c3,196$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.12425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Vera29c3,141$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.62633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-51.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc740…522fbacked Vera27c3,137$847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-35.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Vera18c2,909$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.554240.5%17 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Martinez74c2,835$2,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.113953.2%74 W · 65 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Vera17c2,832$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.765541.8%23 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Martinez74c2,246$1,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.9630964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc356…1c77backed Vera30c2,214$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.51450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Vera28c2,177$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.111330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Vera10c2,076$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.5633132%106 W · 225 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Martinez74c2,000$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52017158.5%100 W · 71 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Martinez74c2,000$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5208655.8%48 W · 38 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+16.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Martinez74c1,883$1,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.4615556.8%88 W · 67 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0506…8c6abacked Vera10c1,785$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.4916746.1%77 W · 90 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Martinez74c1,757$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.765152.9%27 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x682a…0daebacked Vera27c1,709$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4681050%5 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Vera29c1,659$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.618754%47 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x663d…7d23backed Vera27c1,651$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.892520%5 W · 20 L-5.4wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-57.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x809c…eca3backed Vera26c1,644$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.442528%7 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-36.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5031…1ffbbacked Martinez74c1,500$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3901145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Vera27c1,490$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.34344.2%19 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+19%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1d9…5896backed Vera14c1,461$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014237.3%53 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d1…cdc9backed Vera27c1,460$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.24546.7%21 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb748…5b21backed Vera12c1,409$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.1840%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Martinez74c1,301$963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.2635664.6%230 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d80…ba3dbacked Martinez78c1,120$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.43246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79dc…b1a9backed Vera27c1,104$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2981414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.21per pick36cpaid-57.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Vera26c1,017$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.4826736%96 W · 171 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8b8c…9390backed Vera27c1,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2706953.6%37 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88eb…9394backed Vera27c1,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2701643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf638…aa50backed Martinez72c1,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf584…2497backed Vera2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204143.9%18 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Martinez73c1,000$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27017752%92 W · 85 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed Martinez73c1,000$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2703177.4%24 W · 7 L+4.4wins+0.14per pick63cpaid+22.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Martinez69c996.54$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.933455.9%19 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Vera17c986.21$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.1537754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf17a…8abebacked Martinez73c961.09$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.733467.6%23 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7465…caa8backed Martinez73c958.9$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.918160.8%110 W · 71 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Vera26c923.7$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.1614551%74 W · 71 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5df…0f22backed Martinez74c920$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.25851.7%30 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Vera28c892.86$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25012833.6%43 W · 85 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb8…c665backed Martinez74c891.89$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.891457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Martinez72c891.11$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.517244.4%32 W · 40 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Vera26c887.99$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.764228.6%12 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Vera27c870.37$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23556450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d60…5c77backed Martinez72c816.92$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Martinez72c808.85$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.5517055.3%94 W · 76 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Martinez67c777.49$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.73860.5%23 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdad9…6b63backed Vera5c769.31$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.772433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed Vera26c751.47$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.3820837%77 W · 131 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aab…9ae0backed Vera27c740.74$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005752.6%30 W · 27 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked Vera34c740.25$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25511364.6%73 W · 40 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Vera27c714.41$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.8931855%175 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72bc…2065backed Vera28c714.29$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008354.2%45 W · 38 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9f8…e913backed Martinez70c704.29$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.291250%6 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed Vera33c700$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2317451.4%38 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Martinez72c700$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Martinez73c684.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.936250%31 W · 31 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad18…68d7backed Martinez74c675.68$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.689855.1%54 W · 44 L+6.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Vera30c602.36$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.8912541.6%52 W · 73 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7205…e1d6backed Vera30c550.95$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…d703backed Martinez74c540.54$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.546063.3%38 W · 22 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d05…6f11backed Vera19c519.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005250%26 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Vera27c518.52$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14051533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.