UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59a01b6e10ead81e25ca948d40ad33e906acbc50e0ebd3520cca54b7bb35a342
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Martinezof Vera, Martinez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $634,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $635,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $634,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 337 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Martinez | 73c | 133,986$97,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,176.28 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Vera | 27c | 90,000$24,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,388.45 | 130 | 39.2%51 W · 79 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b8…8e25backed Vera | 26c | 75,000$19,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,499.91 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Martinez | 74c | 60,000$44,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,600 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Vera | 8c | 45,690$3,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,497.82 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Martinez | 74c | 44,991$33,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,762.56 | 145 | 58.6%85 W · 60 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44fd…b634backed Martinez | 73c | 40,234$29,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,985.52 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Vera | 26c | 40,000$10,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,399.92 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Vera | 27c | 30,043$8,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,111.61 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd92…6b2abacked Vera | 27c | 30,000$8,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,100 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Vera | 7c | 29,632$1,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,975.47 | 159 | 39.6%63 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Vera | 27c | 22,213$5,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,975.4 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a55…394ebacked Vera | 27c | 20,000$5,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,400 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Martinez | 73c | 20,000$14,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,400 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Martinez | 73c | 20,000$14,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,399.98 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Vera | 27c | 17,877$4,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,803.56 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceec…4ad9backed Vera | 27c | 14,815$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…0da4backed Vera | 27c | 11,111$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Martinez | 74c | 10,811$8,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,810.81 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Martinez | 72c | 10,000$7,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,799.99 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e7…613ebacked Vera | 26c | 9,615$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500.01 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Martinez | 73c | 7,500$5,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,024.99 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…01a8backed Vera | 27c | 7,466$2,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,004.87 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Vera | 26c | 7,000$1,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,829.93 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…b6c6backed Martinez | 79c | 5,314$4,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.28 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…eb4cbacked Vera | 28c | 5,091$1,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,413.64 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fa…a26cbacked Martinez | 74c | 4,100$3,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed Vera | 26c | 4,096$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.9 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8982…59fbbacked Martinez | 74c | 4,054$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.05 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed Vera | 29c | 3,874$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115.05 | 156 | 41%64 W · 92 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…0329backed Vera | 27c | 3,704$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Vera | 17c | 3,663$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.46 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99aa…6c5abacked Martinez | 74c | 3,632$2,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.43 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…b2a1backed Vera | 27c | 3,362$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.86 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Vera | 4c | 3,350$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.6 | 201 | 39.8%80 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Vera | 17c | 3,219$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.38 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db0…f397backed Vera | 17c | 3,196$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Vera | 29c | 3,141$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc740…522fbacked Vera | 27c | 3,137$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Vera | 18c | 2,909$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.55 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Martinez | 74c | 2,835$2,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.1 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Vera | 17c | 2,832$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.76 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Martinez | 74c | 2,246$1,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.96 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc356…1c77backed Vera | 30c | 2,214$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Vera | 28c | 2,177$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.11 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Vera | 10c | 2,076$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.56 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Martinez | 74c | 2,000$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Martinez | 74c | 2,000$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Martinez | 74c | 1,883$1,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.46 | 155 | 56.8%88 W · 67 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…8c6abacked Vera | 10c | 1,785$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.49 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Martinez | 74c | 1,757$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.76 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682a…0daebacked Vera | 27c | 1,709$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Vera | 29c | 1,659$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.61 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x663d…7d23backed Vera | 27c | 1,651$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.89 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -5.4wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…eca3backed Vera | 26c | 1,644$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.44 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5031…1ffbbacked Martinez | 74c | 1,500$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Vera | 27c | 1,490$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.3 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d9…5896backed Vera | 14c | 1,461$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 142 | 37.3%53 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Vera | 27c | 1,460$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.2 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb748…5b21backed Vera | 12c | 1,409$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Martinez | 74c | 1,301$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.26 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d80…ba3dbacked Martinez | 78c | 1,120$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.4 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…b1a9backed Vera | 27c | 1,104$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Vera | 26c | 1,017$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.48 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8c…9390backed Vera | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88eb…9394backed Vera | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf638…aa50backed Martinez | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf584…2497backed Vera | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Martinez | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed Martinez | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked Martinez | 69c | 996.54$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.93 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Vera | 17c | 986.21$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.15 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf17a…8abebacked Martinez | 73c | 961.09$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.73 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7465…caa8backed Martinez | 73c | 958.9$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.9 | 181 | 60.8%110 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Vera | 26c | 923.7$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.16 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5df…0f22backed Martinez | 74c | 920$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.2 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Vera | 28c | 892.86$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb8…c665backed Martinez | 74c | 891.89$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.89 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…5176backed Martinez | 72c | 891.11$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.51 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Vera | 26c | 887.99$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.76 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Vera | 27c | 870.37$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…5c77backed Martinez | 72c | 816.92$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Martinez | 72c | 808.85$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.55 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Martinez | 67c | 777.49$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.7 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdad9…6b63backed Vera | 5c | 769.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Vera | 26c | 751.47$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.38 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aab…9ae0backed Vera | 27c | 740.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Vera | 34c | 740.25$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 113 | 64.6%73 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Vera | 27c | 714.41$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.89 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72bc…2065backed Vera | 28c | 714.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Martinez | 70c | 704.29$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.29 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed Vera | 33c | 700$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…bf90backed Martinez | 72c | 700$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Martinez | 73c | 684.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.93 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…68d7backed Martinez | 74c | 675.68$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.68 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Vera | 30c | 602.36$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.89 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…e1d6backed Vera | 30c | 550.95$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…d703backed Martinez | 74c | 540.54$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.54 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d05…6f11backed Vera | 19c | 519.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Vera | 27c | 518.52$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Card)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- Will Marlon Vera win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.