TailMyPicks
Market

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Hornets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hornetsof Magic, Hornets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,551,598

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,551,598 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,293 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Hornets67c158,316$106,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,244.4266248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa491…3177backed Magic33c100,000$33,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,999.945959.3%35 W · 24 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Magic33c88,755$29,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,007.71,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd95…03bfbacked Magic24c88,426$21,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,046.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Hornets67c74,626$49,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,626.5843542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Magic33c40,000$13,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,20034456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Magic31c38,712$11,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,957.8820744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2580…1d56backed Magic33c38,306$12,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,641.0111737.6%44 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Magic22c32,345$7,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,151.029629.2%28 W · 68 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x583f…2dabbacked Magic7c30,182$2,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,005.383520%7 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Hornets66c30,063$19,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,121.7234851.7%180 W · 168 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19f7…d6d8backed Magic34c28,360$9,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,642.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Magic25c22,565$5,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,543.193,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaef…e17dbacked Magic34c20,200$6,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,8685032%16 W · 34 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-29.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x76ab…506dbacked Hornets66c20,200$13,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,867.934551.1%23 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Magic25c18,759$4,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,753.851,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43b6…9a9bbacked Magic33c18,182$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,000.065030%15 W · 35 L-6.0wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Magic15c17,969$2,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,776.71,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b4…5068backed Hornets66c16,712$11,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,682.08250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Hornets67c15,052$10,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,967.271,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Hornets67c14,845$9,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,949.662,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Magic47c13,617$6,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,370.3626353.6%141 W · 122 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Magic35c13,609$4,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,815.8447043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Hornets63c13,500$8,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,9951,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Hornets63c13,500$8,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,994.9877348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Magic40c13,446$5,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,420.7831345%141 W · 172 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Hornets64c12,847$8,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,624.922,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Magic36c12,679$4,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,501.6562347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Magic36c12,398$4,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,418.215,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8d1…553ebacked Hornets65c12,300$8,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,273.423438.2%13 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7792…b63bbacked Magic34c12,300$4,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,1824940.8%20 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Hornets53c11,070$5,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,213.7732846.6%153 W · 175 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb75…aaf9backed Magic33c11,000$3,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6307759.7%46 W · 31 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Magic34c11,000$3,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,735.1786641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cd1…285dbacked Magic33c10,705$3,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,532.785347.2%25 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Magic33c10,584$3,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,471.394,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Hornets71c10,259$7,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,010.771,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Hornets72c9,900$7,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,762.24,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf819…d410backed Magic39c9,575$3,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,777.9526444.7%118 W · 146 L-15.8wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Magic34c8,800$2,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,995.9543438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9615…60ddbacked Magic14c8,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12014853.4%79 W · 69 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3915…35cebacked Hornets66c7,727$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,627.27366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+23%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Magic38c7,603$2,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,923.5248845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Magic34c7,500$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5501,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Magic35c7,500$2,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,614.9561336.1%221 W · 392 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd15a…80dbbacked Hornets75c7,200$5,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,797.549244.6%41 W · 51 L-8.2wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-27.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Magic30c6,933$2,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,083.689,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77d3…f4d6backed Hornets63c6,855$4,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,567.4229250%146 W · 146 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce8b…6bc7backed Hornets68c6,677$4,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,136.657864.1%50 W · 28 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Magic34c6,666$2,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,266.4441832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Hornets68c6,560$4,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,084.8627865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb961…66c7backed Magic1c6,474$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.68100%0 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Magic30c6,381$1,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,908.088,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Magic42c6,234$2,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,591.6285344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Magic34c6,136$2,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,081.4665939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf54e…0950backed Magic35c6,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1001435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.19per pick55cpaid-19.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x78a2…d0a5backed Hornets68c5,883$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,882.5218343.7%80 W · 103 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5f6…a659backed Hornets67c5,842$3,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,92827241.9%114 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d2…796ebacked Magic38c5,695$2,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,164.189250%46 W · 46 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked Magic36c5,519$1,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,986.8437755.2%208 W · 169 L+23.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+60.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Magic36c5,500$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9801,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb5b…8e29backed Hornets68c5,443$3,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,741.753063.3%19 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Magic34c5,390$1,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,832.61,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf2c…097cbacked Hornets66c5,050$3,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7173177.4%24 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x34c6…3637backed Magic33c5,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6501631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-42.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Hornets66c5,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,699.9987750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Magic7c4,861$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.111,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Magic7c4,773$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.261,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Magic44c4,720$2,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,074.212,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Magic30c4,691$1,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,411.9136023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Magic29c4,634$1,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,348.932,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aec…b4cebacked Magic33c4,545$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5008838.6%34 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x649e…50f0backed Hornets66c4,543$2,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,544.623568.6%24 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1acc…8fe0backed Magic37c4,529$1,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,675.818043.9%79 W · 101 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c85…a495backed Hornets66c4,500$2,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,530580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+36.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4870…85f7backed Magic36c4,500$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6204445.5%20 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0441…b3aabacked Hornets64c4,500$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,619.978441.7%35 W · 49 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Magic12c4,273$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.2465349.9%326 W · 327 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c75…b299backed Magic33c4,142$1,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3674438.6%17 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8a9…d871backed Magic34c4,117$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.78666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+41.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f50…3191backed Hornets66c4,100$2,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3947865.4%51 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Magic40c4,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60024252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xff5b…c583backed Magic34c4,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,38020847.6%99 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Hornets63c3,968$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,468.2535650%178 W · 178 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65ad…4ea9backed Hornets65c3,857$2,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,349.77560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fd1…e532backed Magic11c3,762$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003268.8%22 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Magic19c3,737$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.121,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Magic34c3,645$1,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,237.0148944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Magic1c3,583$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.837211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Magic37c3,545$1,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,315.1130840.9%126 W · 182 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Magic36c3,515$1,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,277.4561939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Magic34c3,509$1,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,193.12,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03e7…0609backed Magic34c3,500$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1901435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-50.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Magic33c3,456$1,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140.5276850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Magic35c3,402$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20062652.2%327 W · 299 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69ac…03e9backed Hornets68c3,309$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.987948.1%38 W · 41 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Hornets67c3,211$2,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,053.791,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea21…99ddbacked Hornets65c3,060$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.067656.6%43 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Hornets68c3,059$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.9358953.7%316 W · 273 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Magic33c3,050$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.51,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.