NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hornets (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a8b65bc1821bc0364a8ffcb69d87ccae70ef13a9592131c456573eede81e86c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Hornets, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,500 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 41c | 8,143$3,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,344.11 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…eb9abacked Hornets | 59c | 7,627$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,127.12 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f0…770dbacked Magic | 0c | 3,990$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4811…fd1cbacked Hornets | 58c | 3,670$2,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,541.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4823…a48bbacked Hornets | 59c | 3,390$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,389.83 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce2…183dbacked Magic | 42c | 2,227$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Magic | 41c | 1,974$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.52 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a2…2e6cbacked Hornets | 58c | 1,400$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Magic | 54c | 1,395$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.27 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Magic | 42c | 1,370$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.04 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Hornets | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 509 | 54.8%279 W · 230 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Hornets | 57c | 936.73$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.79 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Magic | 41c | 724.1$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.9 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…6911backed Magic | 42c | 410$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b00…64a2backed Magic | 42c | 400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…2b74backed Magic | 42c | 360$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…8325backed Magic | 42c | 359.99$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0451…26aabacked Magic | 42c | 350$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb490…94bfbacked Magic | 42c | 350$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Magic | 42c | 340$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Magic | 42c | 335.38$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.33 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea48…c596backed Magic | 42c | 327.51$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.67 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc185…0f71backed Magic | 42c | 320$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1754…384dbacked Magic | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Hornets | 60c | 217.89$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.2 | 234 | 46.2%108 W · 126 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Magic | 42c | 205.07$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.13 | 584 | 50.2%293 W · 291 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Magic | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Magic | 42c | 170$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Hornets | 58c | 146$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.32 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Hornets | 46c | 136.56$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 1,190 | 32%381 W · 809 L | -58.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Magic | 41c | 124.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Magic | 42c | 123.25$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 109 | 40.4%44 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Magic | 43c | 110$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 223 | 36.8%82 W · 141 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1629…8510backed Hornets | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Hornets | 58c | 101.42$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Hornets | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 151 | 56.3%85 W · 66 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Hornets | 59c | 94.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 514 | 38.7%199 W · 315 L | -29.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Magic | 41c | 86.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Magic | 42c | 85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 340 | 47.1%160 W · 180 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Magic | 42c | 85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d34…3406backed Magic | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 161 | 62.7%101 W · 60 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd18b…876dbacked Hornets | 60c | 66.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 113 | 56.6%64 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Hornets | 58c | 59.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 375 | 49.6%186 W · 189 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf824…651fbacked Hornets | 59c | 59.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ba…b99abacked Hornets | 51c | 58.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Magic | 56c | 57.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08d1…28adbacked Hornets | 59c | 57.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe253…b9c7backed Magic | 42c | 55.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Magic | 49c | 53.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Magic | 41c | 53.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Magic | 42c | 53.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 447 | 47%210 W · 237 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf35e…f846backed Hornets | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Magic | 41c | 42.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd6…24c5backed Magic | 42c | 40.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e2…2cc3backed Magic | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 129 | 60.5%78 W · 51 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Magic | 45c | 39.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Magic | 41c | 39.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Magic | 42c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Magic | 46c | 35.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dab…dc59backed Hornets | 58c | 31.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Magic | 48c | 30.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 296 | 45.6%135 W · 161 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fed…87bfbacked Hornets | 51c | 25.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Magic | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hornets (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Hornets (-3.5)Hornets won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Magic vs. HornetsHornets won
- Magic vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Magic vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 224.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 225.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Spread: Hornets (-15.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-4.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-5.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-6.5)Hornets won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.