TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,299

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,299 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7ca5…73bcbacked Under55c1,335$734 inLost-$73440451.5%208 W · 196 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over45c1,302$586 inWon+$716.254,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under56c1,174$658 inLost-$657.516,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over44c1,087$478 inWon+$608.532,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9385…2484backed Over47c1,017$478 inWon+$538.829352.7%49 W · 44 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Over69c623.95$431 inWon+$193.4265872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Under54c500$270 inLost-$27069149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under53c469.35$249 inLost-$248.959,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under31c467.77$145 inLost-$144.928,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under54c276.89$150 inLost-$150.183,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over43c200$86 inWon+$1141,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Over46c153.66$70 inWon+$83.1858450.2%293 W · 291 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over46c103.53$48 inWon+$55.94,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb70d…5925backed Over44c98.71$43 inWon+$55.5617643.2%76 W · 100 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x91d5…4ab2backed Under57c95$54 inLost-$54.158043.8%35 W · 45 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Under47c94.34$44 inLost-$44.3442153%223 W · 198 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over53c94.34$50 inWon+$44.342,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under54c85.99$46 inLost-$46.434,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb11f…f01cbacked Under31c81.94$25 inLost-$25.43647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88ff…78aebacked Under46c76.09$35 inLost-$355337.7%20 W · 33 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dab…029dbacked Over47c66.38$31 inWon+$35.186435.9%23 W · 41 L-6.2wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-23.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf05f…91d5backed Under57c52.63$30 inLost-$3012857.8%74 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b54…ea13backed Under52c46$24 inLost-$23.937959.4%225 W · 154 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over53c43.38$23 inWon+$20.213,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Over42c33.45$14 inWon+$19.469337.8%262 W · 431 L+2.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under47c30.32$14 inLost-$14.13,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e27…acccbacked Under58c30$17 inLost-$17.41764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c01…8c6cbacked Under54c27.78$15 inLost-$152437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-22.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d90…e2c4backed Under54c27.78$15 inLost-$15425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-54.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over47c27$13 inWon+$14.311,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed Over46c25$12 inWon+$13.522456.3%126 W · 98 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x700a…58a5backed Over45c25$11 inWon+$13.822336.8%82 W · 141 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked Over58c20$12 inWon+$8.4632866.5%218 W · 110 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.