TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 116.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,805

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,805 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xce39…04d6backed Under46c1,455$669 inLost-$669.4437842.9%162 W · 216 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc14f…7d8dbacked Over54c1,100$594 inWon+$5062657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Over54c400$216 inWon+$18442853%227 W · 201 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x890e…4a05backed Under53c346$183 inLost-$183.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…a1ffbacked Under52c328$171 inLost-$170.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa59e…d98cbacked Under52c319$166 inLost-$165.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64c4…ef28backed Under52c319$166 inLost-$165.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07f6…a130backed Under52c311$162 inLost-$161.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefbd…4285backed Over47c300$141 inWon+$159250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f4…ac40backed Over47c295$139 inWon+$156.35250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x109e…0d79backed Under53c295$156 inLost-$156.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf596…941ebacked Over47c293$138 inWon+$155.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4326…616abacked Under52c251$131 inLost-$130.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b99…a649backed Under53c245$130 inLost-$129.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda2e…1f19backed Under52c240$125 inLost-$124.820%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0206…ef6abacked Under53c238$126 inLost-$126.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc45a…1f80backed Over47c236$111 inWon+$125.082100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x42c4…82d5backed Under52c219$114 inLost-$113.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafa6…d29abacked Over48c208$100 inWon+$108.162100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+82.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc42…8dcdbacked Over48c207$99 inWon+$107.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3055…da74backed Over48c192$92 inWon+$99.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e72…bd6fbacked Over48c181$87 inWon+$94.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b17…3e08backed Over48c178$85 inWon+$92.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea1b…c3eebacked Over48c177$85 inWon+$92.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6da9…1b25backed Over48c159$76 inWon+$82.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2fb…4804backed Over48c157$75 inWon+$81.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb81…d4d3backed Over48c147$71 inWon+$76.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfa2…4937backed Over48c146$70 inWon+$75.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x659e…1e73backed Over48c118$57 inWon+$61.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc97…3738backed Over48c117$56 inWon+$60.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under48c45.99$22 inLost-$22.084,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3123…b44dbacked Under46c40$18 inLost-$18.414443.1%62 W · 82 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Over52c30.61$16 inWon+$14.6946447.8%222 W · 242 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.