TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 224.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$214,364

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,364 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xada5…c2a4backed Over56c68,836$38,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,287.974337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under44c30,234$13,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,302.971,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under44c27,415$12,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,123.519,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under44c17,572$7,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,737.234,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over55c7,915$4,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,561.7543542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under44c705.35$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.463,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under44c680$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.21,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd708…b9d2backed Over57c668.42$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.424348.8%21 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Under44c500$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22069149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Over57c350.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.8895452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7342…9197backed Over58c349.6$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.071866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8230…5121backed Under14c348.79$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4920837.5%78 W · 130 L+38.2wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+115.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Under44c320$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.845646.7%213 W · 243 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under44c319$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.366,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Over57c219.3$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.331954.5%174 W · 145 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Under45c200$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8995047.2%448 W · 502 L-28.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45b5…2d74backed Over57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.446543.1%28 W · 37 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under42c173.53$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.882,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Under44c160$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.456547.8%270 W · 295 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Under43c150.15$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.561,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over57c149.12$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.1223657.2%135 W · 101 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Under44c138$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.721,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd815…1cdebacked Under44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508456%47 W · 37 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb36…50b3backed Under45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec54…a03dbacked Over56c102.16$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9510957.8%63 W · 46 L+0.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61af…aa01backed Over57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4338464.3%247 W · 137 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7150…476bbacked Under47c94$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.183540%14 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a2e…3ef0backed Over57c87.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7226345.6%120 W · 143 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a25…bb6bbacked Under44c80$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.234047.1%160 W · 180 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Under44c80$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.257250%286 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92aa…0341backed Over56c76.98$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8715949.7%79 W · 80 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Under45c59.02$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5664844.8%290 W · 358 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c01…8c6cbacked Under45c57.42$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.842437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-22.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x77c4…d390backed Over56c51.96$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8620762.3%129 W · 78 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Under26c50.96$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.471,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26e8…1c01backed Over72c49.75$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.77451.4%38 W · 36 L-6.8wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-14.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x66ed…d321backed Under45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010448.1%50 W · 54 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Over56c38.7$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.031,32249.9%660 W · 662 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdd6…24c5backed Under44c38.41$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.92040%8 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Under44c35.84$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7791746.9%430 W · 487 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf12…cbd9backed Over57c29.82$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.823842.1%16 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under44c28.85$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.83,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2830…c47bbacked Over57c28.07$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.071250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26c3…e26dbacked Over57c26.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.322166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e31…5e8ebacked Under45c25.47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4611748.7%57 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed Over55c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2522456.3%126 W · 98 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff7…9ab6backed Under45c23.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4945460.4%274 W · 180 L+21.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d7c…3e7abacked Over57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.63167.7%21 W · 10 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+21%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb083…d6a5backed Over70c16.94$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.081758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.