NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e011d9631c20d1bdb847f35e588f32270a3bd9c3eb8acbffc277dbba6755e02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $214,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,364 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xada5…c2a4backed Over | 56c | 68,836$38,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,287.97 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 44c | 30,234$13,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,302.97 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 27,415$12,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,123.51 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 44c | 17,572$7,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,737.23 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over | 55c | 7,915$4,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,561.75 | 435 | 42.8%186 W · 249 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 44c | 705.35$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.46 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 44c | 680$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.2 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd708…b9d2backed Over | 57c | 668.42$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.42 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Over | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…9197backed Over | 58c | 349.6$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.07 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Under | 14c | 348.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 208 | 37.5%78 W · 130 L | +38.2wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Under | 44c | 320$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.8 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 44c | 319$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.36 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…5e56backed Over | 57c | 219.3$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.3 | 319 | 54.5%174 W · 145 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 45c | 200$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b5…2d74backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 42c | 173.53$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.88 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 44c | 160$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 43c | 150.15$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.56 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over | 57c | 149.12$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.12 | 236 | 57.2%135 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Under | 44c | 138$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd815…1cdebacked Under | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…50b3backed Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…a03dbacked Over | 56c | 102.16$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…aa01backed Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 384 | 64.3%247 W · 137 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7150…476bbacked Under | 47c | 94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2e…3ef0backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 263 | 45.6%120 W · 143 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Under | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 340 | 47.1%160 W · 180 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Under | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Over | 56c | 76.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 45c | 59.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 648 | 44.8%290 W · 358 L | -32.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c01…8c6cbacked Under | 45c | 57.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Over | 56c | 51.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 207 | 62.3%129 W · 78 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 26c | 50.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…1c01backed Over | 72c | 49.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 56c | 38.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 1,322 | 49.9%660 W · 662 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd6…24c5backed Under | 44c | 38.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Under | 44c | 35.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf12…cbd9backed Over | 57c | 29.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 44c | 28.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2830…c47bbacked Over | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c3…e26dbacked Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e31…5e8ebacked Under | 45c | 25.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed Under | 45c | 23.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 454 | 60.4%274 W · 180 L | +21.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…3e7abacked Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +21%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…d6a5backed Over | 70c | 16.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 224.5this page
- 1H Spread: Hornets (-3.5)Hornets won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Magic vs. HornetsHornets won
- Magic vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Magic vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 225.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Spread: Hornets (-15.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-3.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-4.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-5.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-6.5)Hornets won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.