NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19c0d2b862a4d29969205726f29370dea5f3408b3f4bd011bd77803bf8d3c167
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,510 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 50c | 1,937$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.82 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 68c | 875.82$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.59 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Over | 48c | 831.99$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.63 | 150 | 38%57 W · 93 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 66c | 658.62$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.43 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Under | 20c | 559.48$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.9 | 236 | 49.2%116 W · 120 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 361.45$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.04 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Over | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 208 | 37.5%78 W · 130 L | +38.2wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 48c | 282.74$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.03 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Under | 45c | 230.22$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.44 | 653 | 49.9%326 W · 327 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba58…28c2backed Over | 57c | 201.59$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Over | 51c | 194.07$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.09 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Under | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 234 | 41.5%97 W · 137 L | +13.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09f5…c391backed Over | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 52c | 97.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Under | 20c | 79.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 455 | 44.8%204 W · 251 L | +21.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 77c | 74.6$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 71c | 71.54$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 274 | 63.5%174 W · 100 L | +34.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Under | 20c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb11f…f01cbacked Under | 53c | 57.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Under | 20c | 56.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 106 | 37.7%40 W · 66 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 53c | 56.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Over | 51c | 55.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Over | 49c | 51.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 216 | 37.5%81 W · 135 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Under | 53c | 44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 342 | 47.7%163 W · 179 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 49c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 49c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 602 | 50.5%304 W · 298 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cd…2ddcbacked Over | 53c | 33.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5this page
- 1H Spread: Hornets (-3.5)Hornets won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Magic vs. HornetsHornets won
- Magic vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Magic vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 224.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 225.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Spread: Hornets (-15.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-3.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-4.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-5.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-6.5)Hornets won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.