TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 227.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$400,464

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $400,464 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Under51c112,262$57,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57,253.541,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Over49c76,028$37,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,774.2830845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Under51c62,888$32,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,073.071,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Under51c40,000$20,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,399.9617250.6%87 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Over49c25,069$12,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,78524744.1%109 W · 138 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Over48c25,000$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,999.971,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Under53c19,003$10,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,071.8320545.9%94 W · 111 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2910…b84bbacked Over49c16,543$8,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,436.86366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfe3…2e27backed Over49c12,755$6,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,505.1540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43b6…9a9bbacked Over48c12,500$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,5005030%15 W · 35 L-6.0wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under51c12,216$6,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,244.924,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Over49c11,602$5,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,917.0434854%188 W · 160 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Over49c11,402$5,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,815.0231643.4%137 W · 179 L-18.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over49c11,102$5,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,662.0448546.4%225 W · 260 L-14.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Under52c11,000$5,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,72045850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x65c5…c3f2backed Over49c9,669$4,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,931.39944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over49c7,889$3,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,033.764,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under52c7,667$3,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,986.841,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Under52c7,292$3,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,792.0114245.8%65 W · 77 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Under54c7,062$3,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,813.721,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over47c6,356$2,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,362.046,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde79…2a1bbacked Over49c6,120$2,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,121.4117349.7%86 W · 87 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Under54c5,873$3,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,171.1840947.7%195 W · 214 L-13.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf4e…7c67backed Under53c5,810$3,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,079.320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a62…1647backed Under53c5,436$2,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,881.0820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0a2…40d5backed Over49c5,224$2,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,664.4921943.4%95 W · 124 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb6f…2653backed Over49c5,102$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,602.0416249.4%80 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41c8…f833backed Over47c4,822$2,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,555.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+38.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bee…0ca9backed Over49c4,728$2,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,411.282454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a91…1769backed Over49c4,656$2,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,374.5232150.8%163 W · 158 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed Over46c4,348$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,347.838154.3%44 W · 37 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0f8…12f7backed Over49c4,347$2,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,216.945100%5 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+110.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd710…cf6fbacked Over49c4,247$2,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,166.043933.3%13 W · 26 L-6.3wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-37.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x89f3…dc13backed Under53c4,166$2,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,207.98250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Over49c4,082$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,081.6338946%179 W · 210 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc42…18bfbacked Over47c4,076$1,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,160.282100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+99%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Under51c4,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,039.9979549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbca…b7b7backed Over49c3,723$1,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,898.7325049.2%123 W · 127 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bee…a369backed Over49c3,492$1,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,780.928148.1%39 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47b2…dab3backed Over47c3,226$1,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,709.782100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+99%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Under54c3,092$1,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,669.4929055.5%161 W · 129 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5aec…b4cebacked Over49c3,061$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,561.228838.6%34 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Under52c3,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5601,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x998e…bd07backed Over47c2,632$1,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,394.962100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+119.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9b0…4229backed Under53c2,566$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.98250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaf8…42d5backed Over47c2,534$1,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,343.022100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb899…0e45backed Under53c2,502$1,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,326.06250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Over47c2,378$1,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,260.341,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under52c2,316$1,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,204.452,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d79…2391backed Over47c2,188$1,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.64250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Over47c2,100$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,11321549.8%107 W · 108 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under53c2,063$1,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,093.32,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f68…25d0backed Over47c2,044$961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.32250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over47c1,916$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.482,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc452…99f9backed Under53c1,722$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.66250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Over48c1,691$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.2135749.6%177 W · 180 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ba1…f4f6backed Over47c1,652$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.56250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a2…de22backed Under53c1,601$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.5320%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bf2…360cbacked Over47c1,326$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.78250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under52c1,326$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.573,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac1a…f708backed Over49c1,293$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.5719445.4%88 W · 106 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f6e…84b4backed Over49c1,260$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.415349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb307…be4abacked Over49c1,224$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.4918842.6%80 W · 108 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x287a…7976backed Over47c1,212$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.395754.4%31 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x975b…3760backed Over49c1,211$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.465547.3%26 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5304,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Under54c1,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54080653.6%432 W · 374 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fd…5a3fbacked Over48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52019958.3%116 W · 83 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf630…7e65backed Under54c999.98$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.9929149.5%144 W · 147 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Under52c999.38$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.6826149.4%129 W · 132 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Over48c902.08$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.0871449.3%352 W · 362 L+2.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4811…fd1cbacked Under53c878$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.34425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-56.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93a2…5181backed Under46c843.2$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.815038%57 W · 93 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over54c817.54$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.073,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Over73c681.88$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.7965872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Over46c670.98$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.3336351.2%186 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbff9…009dbacked Under52c579.99$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.5927052.6%142 W · 128 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed Over49c558.06$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.6125951.4%133 W · 126 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Under52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26069149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Under53c500$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26533150.8%168 W · 163 L+1.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under51c499.99$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.9980737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1a6…afa6backed Under52c480.77$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25011142.3%47 W · 64 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under52c449.63$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.811,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62d5…2307backed Over49c431.61$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.12450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0c8…090cbacked Over49c408.59$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.5910546.7%49 W · 56 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Over49c375.51$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.5149246.3%228 W · 264 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6eaa…9baebacked Over49c374.16$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.8213554.1%73 W · 62 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x91f7…4767backed Over49c374.14$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.8110651.9%55 W · 51 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x353e…9db2backed Over61c355.99$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.425738.6%22 W · 35 L-5.6wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-28.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x69ca…9ef8backed Under57c350.88$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20028554.7%156 W · 129 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Over46c347.01$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.0558450.2%293 W · 291 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over49c336.37$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.5589048.8%434 W · 456 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over56c329.36$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.922,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over46c300$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1621,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x362a…8683backed Over46c286.96$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.9613155%72 W · 59 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Over49c285.71$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.7152146.6%243 W · 278 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over49c264$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.651,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac9e…cca3backed Over46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.393545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Under55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11084150.3%423 W · 418 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac1a…813ebacked Over47c196.71$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.1517250.6%87 W · 85 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.