NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hornets (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcbb3856c93216f494eb1546f17623912a148b9469da8884fc03ae5685cf23ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Hornets, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,110 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf19d…276fbacked Hornets | 48c | 38,926$18,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,241.45 | 231 | 47.6%110 W · 121 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Hornets | 47c | 36,455$17,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,321.01 | 726 | 48.3%351 W · 375 L | +30.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Magic | 52c | 24,861$13,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,039.45 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Magic | 53c | 21,000$11,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,130 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Magic | 52c | 18,933$9,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,845.25 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…0840backed Magic | 53c | 18,868$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 266 | 48.5%129 W · 137 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hornets | 48c | 3,559$1,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,850.68 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Hornets | 47c | 3,366$1,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,783.98 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Hornets | 48c | 2,052$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.08 | 1,194 | 48.8%583 W · 611 L | -22.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Hornets | 47c | 1,658$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.85 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a9a9backed Magic | 53c | 1,509$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 348 | 52.3%182 W · 166 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Magic | 52c | 996$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.92 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 51c | 882.33$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.9 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Magic | 57c | 864.98$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.04 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Hornets | 50c | 786.71$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.36 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 23c | 419.02$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.52 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a9…642dbacked Hornets | 48c | 395.92$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.92 | 181 | 43.1%78 W · 103 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed Magic | 59c | 333$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.36 | 236 | 30.1%71 W · 165 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Hornets | 48c | 242.69$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.2 | 898 | 53.1%477 W · 421 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Magic | 52c | 240.78$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.53 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf93d…f36dbacked Hornets | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +6.3wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Hornets | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 332 | 51.2%170 W · 162 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb503…7552backed Hornets | 49c | 204.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.32 | 141 | 55.3%78 W · 63 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Magic | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Magic | 48c | 188.82$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.42 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78f1…e373backed Magic | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Hornets | 57c | 173.17$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.46 | 653 | 49.9%326 W · 327 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Magic | 52c | 163.73$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.14 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Magic | 52c | 160$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac8…9e67backed Magic | 53c | 139.62$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Magic | 46c | 132.6$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cc…9800backed Hornets | 48c | 131.25$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…eb82backed Hornets | 48c | 126.79$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.93 | 342 | 48.8%167 W · 175 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…ca5dbacked Magic | 61c | 114.52$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc00…79f8backed Hornets | 40c | 107$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.36 | 152 | 40.8%62 W · 90 L | -12.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Hornets | 46c | 106.87$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.88 | 514 | 38.7%199 W · 315 L | -29.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd815…1cdebacked Hornets | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b89…f3a9backed Magic | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c01…8c6cbacked Magic | 53c | 94.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd35e…a1e8backed Hornets | 48c | 91.87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 157 | 42.7%67 W · 90 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca0…cb82backed Hornets | 70c | 86.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8698…871fbacked Hornets | 42c | 85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Magic | 40c | 84.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 1,190 | 32%381 W · 809 L | -58.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Hornets | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d18…fd1bbacked Magic | 52c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa10b…9885backed Hornets | 48c | 56.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Magic | 47c | 43.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0d…c27bbacked Hornets | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Magic | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d2…c802backed Magic | 53c | 37.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Magic | 48c | 34.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b92cbacked Hornets | 48c | 33.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Magic | 52c | 32.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1,322 | 49.9%660 W · 662 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6b…e84bbacked Magic | 50c | 31.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Magic | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d63…0b78backed Hornets | 48c | 29.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Magic | 51c | 28.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 296 | 45.6%135 W · 161 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Hornets | 52c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Hornets | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Magic | 53c | 21.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8778…83b5backed Hornets | 48c | 21.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e2…2cc3backed Magic | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 129 | 60.5%78 W · 51 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hornets (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Hornets (-3.5)Hornets won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Magic vs. HornetsHornets won
- Magic vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Magic vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 224.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 225.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Spread: Hornets (-15.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-3.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-4.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-5.5)Hornets won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.