TailMyPicks
Market

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Hornets: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Hornetsof Magic, Hornets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,000

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,000 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Hornets74c919.94$677 inWon+$243.425,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Magic24c803.58$197 inLost-$196.661,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x49fa…f904backed Magic41c500.92$203 inLost-$203.2717436.2%63 W · 111 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ed3…44d6backed Magic36c486$175 inLost-$174.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x358e…fbcdbacked Magic36c404$145 inLost-$145.44250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x614b…8488backed Hornets64c260$166 inWon+$93.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+97.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Hornets60c259.56$156 inWon+$103.8350651.2%259 W · 247 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdaa…5529backed Magic36c254$91 inLost-$91.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xafa6…d29abacked Hornets64c253$162 inWon+$91.082100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+82.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cd9…39bfbacked Hornets64c245$157 inWon+$88.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Magic36c233.88$84 inLost-$84.22,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30f4…8c1ebacked Hornets64c222$142 inWon+$79.925759.6%34 W · 23 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec79…b56abacked Hornets64c217$139 inWon+$78.12250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9c2…1bbebacked Hornets64c169$108 inWon+$60.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Hornets67c140$94 inWon+$46.2826353.6%141 W · 122 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Hornets60c139.29$83 inWon+$56.174,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2702…a103backed Magic40c126.2$50 inLost-$49.917753.2%41 W · 36 L+8.1wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4835…8f59backed Hornets65c100.46$65 inWon+$35.4628657.3%164 W · 122 L+1.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked Magic68c88.86$60 inLost-$60.4236247.2%171 W · 191 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x27f3…8382backed Hornets63c79.84$50 inWon+$29.8410043%43 W · 57 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Magic40c66.6$26 inLost-$26.4636248.1%174 W · 188 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Hornets61c58.69$36 inWon+$23.1888057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1707…4b9dbacked Hornets73c55.18$40 inWon+$14.821540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-34.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf24…1208backed Magic35c28.63$10 inLost-$10.029328%26 W · 67 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Hornets61c25.64$16 inWon+$1093145.8%426 W · 505 L-25.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3157…5903backed Magic67c23.56$16 inLost-$15.7330%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x12f1…5af8backed Magic69c19.78$14 inLost-$13.65560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick71cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7395…fdeebacked Hornets63c19.3$12 inWon+$7.096647%31 W · 35 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.