TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf35e…f846

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
81
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: NBA, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 55 out of 100; worst NHL at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT7356.2%41 W · 32 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 73 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Knicks (-6.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$114.45
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.5
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$103.57
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+55.6%+$41.35
James Harden: Assists O/U 5.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$51.47
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 18.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.62
Spread: Knicks (-14.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+215.3%+$107.66
Spread: Knicks (-6.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$90.24
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: 1H Moneylinebacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+84.7%+$45.75
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.77
Spread: Thunder (-5.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+79.8%+$58.25
Spread: Knicks (-5.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$253.53
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Spread: Thunder (-2.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.24
1H Spread: Pistons (-2.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$149.13
Spread: Pistons (-4.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,022Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,021.89
Spread: Spurs (-17.5)backed Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.66
Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H Moneylinebacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+59.3%+$100.41
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Pistons vs. Cavaliersbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.14
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.85
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 213.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+45%+$24.07
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.22
Showing 25 of 73 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$99
Counter-Strike: OG vs NIP (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Playoffsbacked NIP · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+25%+$5.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+90.1%+$54.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jynxzi win the PogChamps chess tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$55.31
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seattle Redhawks vs. Santa Clara Broncosbacked Seattle Redhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFClast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fight to Go the Distance?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.01
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kings vs. Utah: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.