NBA · resolved market
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 18.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1a331dbf594a085d7564673ff9dcb2d6d91310768b573a815b3bbbb41fb806e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe962…663abacked Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked No | 50c | 579.69$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.85 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 55c | 472.27$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.62 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed No | 50c | 470.63$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.15 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 48c | 275.84$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.4 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 50c | 200$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96bf…ba22backed Yes | 53c | 181.7$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Yes | 51c | 127.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Yes | 45c | 114$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf35e…f846backed Yes | 45c | 110.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbc…3122backed Yes | 50c | 100.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a80…b90abacked Yes | 45c | 97.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x565c…f3c0backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 108 | 55.6%60 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd032…5136backed Yes | 51c | 78.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed No | 47c | 73.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 193 | 52.8%102 W · 91 L | +11.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 51c | 67.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x920e…7873backed Yes | 50c | 60.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | -11.5wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd69e…3393backed Yes | 45c | 55.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 49c | 51.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14d3…8604backed Yes | 49c | 50.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb502…9d8bbacked Yes | 56c | 49.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 300 | 55.7%167 W · 133 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13db…2523backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…6468backed Yes | 47c | 42.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…270ebacked Yes | 50c | 40.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 48%85 W · 92 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 333 | 56.2%187 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…30a2backed Yes | 52c | 38.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce98…fbb1backed No | 58c | 33.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938a…e0edbacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed No | 50c | 29.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 405 | 46.9%190 W · 215 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18e6…b54abacked Yes | 42c | 24.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 197 | 48.2%95 W · 102 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 51c | 19.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 18.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-0.5)Thunder won
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 0.5No won
- Luguentz Dort: Assists O/U 0.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Spurs (-11.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Spurs (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Thunder vs. SpursThunder won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 105.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 207.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: Odd/Even ScoreOdd won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: Team to Score FirstSpurs won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.