TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Spurs (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Spurs, Thunder
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$740,552
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$744,426

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $740,552 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 380 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2c33…0563backed Spurs49c175,029$86,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86,299.1326753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Thunder49c123,757$61,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62,645.6769848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Thunder51c92,546$46,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,772.1614538.6%56 W · 89 L-12.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Spurs49c68,603$33,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,413.0816841.1%69 W · 99 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Spurs51c60,000$30,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,6001,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa080…234fbacked Thunder52c60,000$31,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,00014842.6%63 W · 85 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Spurs49c59,985$29,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,319.8864948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Thunder52c49,752$25,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,881.1220545.9%94 W · 111 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d7b…e2cebacked Thunder48c41,021$19,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,331.055940.7%24 W · 35 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Thunder50c35,000$17,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,599.981,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d5d…191dbacked Thunder53c31,001$16,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,570.475442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Spurs48c30,000$14,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,40038253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28d7…89edbacked Spurs50c23,333$11,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,665.062138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Spurs49c21,221$10,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,398.1925753.7%138 W · 119 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Thunder51c19,207$9,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,495.9711654.3%63 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder51c14,731$7,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,254.064,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Spurs51c11,583$5,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,907.241,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Spurs49c10,204$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00063746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c0a…a9bebacked Spurs51c10,200$5,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,2022437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+4.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x418d…88a3backed Spurs52c10,200$5,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,30410248%49 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Spurs48c10,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,80025352.6%133 W · 120 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4852…67c4backed Thunder53c9,526$5,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,477.425655.4%31 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Spurs49c9,316$4,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,590.5855251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Thunder54c8,632$4,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,013.243056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+40.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e4e…1dfcbacked Thunder53c7,453$3,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,502.833342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Thunder52c6,800$3,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,263.9923742.6%101 W · 136 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Spurs49c6,684$3,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,275.2420946.9%98 W · 111 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fde…abcebacked Thunder53c6,226$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,926.423641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x83d4…ad01backed Thunder49c6,198$3,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,161.169558.9%56 W · 39 L+13.3wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+27.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Spurs48c6,000$2,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,88020155.7%112 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Thunder49c6,000$2,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,059.4665045.1%293 W · 357 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5d8…e9a1backed Spurs51c5,686$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9001540%6 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Spurs49c5,102$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50090650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Thunder50c4,673$2,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,341.491,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfe3…c693backed Thunder53c4,000$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8801747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Spurs48c3,600$1,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,72818445.7%84 W · 100 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Thunder51c3,500$1,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,697.4948054.2%260 W · 220 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder51c3,466$1,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,698.346,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Thunder52c3,401$1,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,632.4365939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Spurs51c3,238$1,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.1732351.1%165 W · 158 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Thunder52c3,201$1,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,536.4686641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x379a…5122backed Thunder53c3,019$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,418.873030%9 W · 21 L-5.6wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-38.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1b8f…cca7backed Spurs52c3,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5602236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Thunder52c3,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,44010248%49 W · 53 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Spurs48c2,972$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,439.9912451.6%64 W · 60 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Spurs38c2,640$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.852951.2%271 W · 258 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Thunder50c2,087$1,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,043.4317247.7%82 W · 90 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7ee…fe5dbacked Spurs48c2,083$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011759.8%70 W · 47 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+24.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1c2e…f1c7backed Spurs48c2,044$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.898354.2%45 W · 38 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd942…f9d3backed Thunder49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.8221142.7%90 W · 121 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc9e…441dbacked Spurs52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-52.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0c3a…a56bbacked Thunder53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9401968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+27.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Thunder52c1,968$1,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.743438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Thunder52c1,964$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.432,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c77…2c45backed Spurs48c1,933$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.84922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-50.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Thunder52c1,923$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.042,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f6…679ebacked Thunder53c1,887$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.791747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b5c…9a2bbacked Thunder50c1,858$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.788052.5%42 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Spurs48c1,605$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.41,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Thunder62c1,572$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.0130551.5%157 W · 148 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b46…121dbacked Spurs52c1,542$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80031551.7%163 W · 152 L-1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked Spurs51c1,469$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.055937.3%22 W · 37 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf29…834cbacked Spurs48c1,465$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.212646%58 W · 68 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea48…c596backed Spurs48c1,431$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.8818444.6%82 W · 102 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Thunder52c1,294$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.3249249.8%245 W · 247 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Spurs49c1,254$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.465358.5%31 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcba5…cd88backed Spurs41c1,234$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.732653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32f1…c96ebacked Thunder52c1,200$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57611757.3%67 W · 50 L+9.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Spurs49c1,200$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.9960049.8%299 W · 301 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Spurs48c1,194$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57327553.5%147 W · 128 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeef3…0547backed Thunder43c1,159$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.2725550.2%128 W · 127 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Thunder43c1,123$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.0461638.5%237 W · 379 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Spurs50c1,080$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.462051.1%317 W · 303 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f5…c161backed Spurs48c1,069$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51311440.4%46 W · 68 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Thunder59c1,051$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.91,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Thunder41c1,046$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.918,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d9…c125backed Spurs48c1,042$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020247.5%96 W · 106 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6303…9556backed Spurs48c1,042$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50018853.2%100 W · 88 L-9.9wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Thunder50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50025651.2%131 W · 125 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18c6…a4dbbacked Spurs48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48010750.5%54 W · 53 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ef5…8898backed Thunder53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4703852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed Thunder52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48016050%80 W · 80 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Spurs38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38068838.5%265 W · 423 L-26.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b23…e20fbacked Spurs48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48049938.9%194 W · 305 L-23.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Spurs51c978.81$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50041753.2%222 W · 195 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2c7…2e93backed Thunder53c943.4$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.421152.6%111 W · 100 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f1c…5f43backed Thunder42c926.19$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.192846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec56…1816backed Spurs8c904.13$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.13728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Thunder52c899.98$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.9968944%303 W · 386 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Thunder64c889.48$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.1142842.5%182 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Thunder50c855$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.9627450%137 W · 137 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Spurs48c833.33$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc5b…5443backed Spurs48c833.33$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40012542.4%53 W · 72 L-11.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-18.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Spurs50c831.86$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.9357650%288 W · 288 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bf8…03b2backed Spurs47c806.11$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.0927549.5%136 W · 139 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7851…d471backed Spurs51c800$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4088148.1%39 W · 42 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Thunder50c790.1$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.9589850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b62…728abacked Spurs51c784.99$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.3411556.5%65 W · 50 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Spurs51c739.17$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.4459250.2%297 W · 295 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x441d…544dbacked Thunder35c715.73$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.3711639.7%46 W · 70 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.