TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 105.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,605
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,054

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,605 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdd9d…84b6backed Over57c949.99$541 inWon+$408.49666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under42c700.21$292 inLost-$291.674,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Under43c656.8$282 inLost-$282.427751.9%40 W · 37 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2f0…3206backed Under43c389.99$168 inLost-$167.69666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+54.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2df…ca29backed Under43c389.45$167 inLost-$167.4617247.7%82 W · 90 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Under42c385.2$162 inLost-$161.7869848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeea8…0412backed Over57c375$214 inWon+$161.2516251.9%84 W · 78 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dfd…b845backed Over57c345$197 inWon+$148.351376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick57cpaid+33.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Under43c200$86 inLost-$8615044.7%67 W · 83 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Over57c175$100 inWon+$75.2546346.4%215 W · 248 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cee…bd00backed Under43c120$52 inLost-$51.6540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fb1…0073backed Under43c69.77$30 inLost-$3014953%79 W · 70 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Under43c69.65$30 inLost-$303259.4%19 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc2b4…2ce6backed Over58c65.52$38 inWon+$27.521435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.19per pick55cpaid-40.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0514…def7backed Over59c61.85$36 inWon+$25.363855.3%21 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbcf…20aebacked Over58c52.6$30 inWon+$22.2928943.3%125 W · 164 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under42c48.28$20 inLost-$20.281,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x499c…2f8ebacked Over58c48.28$28 inWon+$20.285251.9%27 W · 25 L-6.2wins-0.12per pick64cpaid-21.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Under46c45$21 inLost-$20.6556348.5%273 W · 290 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc03a…a7bdbacked Over57c33.33$19 inWon+$14.332657.7%15 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under42c28.98$12 inLost-$12.172,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under43c23.44$10 inLost-$10.0433356.2%187 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.