TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,006
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,137

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,006 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3da8…80c3backed Yes47c321.12$150 inLost-$150.315954.2%32 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d64…9190backed No54c100$54 inWon+$461100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No53c100$53 inWon+$4785449.4%422 W · 432 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes45c99.98$45 inLost-$44.9944740.7%182 W · 265 L-27.5wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1de9…9499backed No58c86.61$50 inWon+$36.6110636.8%39 W · 67 L-14.9wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-30.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x085b…ab9fbacked Yes43c44.56$19 inLost-$19.369941.4%41 W · 58 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9382…4ee3backed No55c43.51$24 inWon+$19.517251.4%37 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No53c36.2$19 inWon+$16.9553842%226 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ae5…8386backed No54c35$19 inWon+$16.12161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+33.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc78b…5c76backed No55c27.47$15 inWon+$12.475736.8%21 W · 36 L-9.1wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-30.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No57c24.56$14 inWon+$10.5619555.4%108 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.