NBA · resolved market
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e2ced919c5eafdf1c30e907fe3e27978239d6db8f5164d0820f9f0f4c4bb24b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacb2…b989backed Yes | 37c | 14,873$5,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,399.42 | 492 | 44.3%218 W · 274 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 65c | 9,323$6,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,104.97 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…7e61backed No | 57c | 5,000$2,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,849.98 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 65c | 1,011$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.44 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked No | 60c | 800$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 392 | 65.1%255 W · 137 L | +31.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e03…103fbacked Yes | 37c | 794.56$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9201…e578backed Yes | 40c | 722.34$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.6 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked No | 66c | 599.99$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.66 | 493 | 45.2%223 W · 270 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b0…072ebacked Yes | 43c | 581.4$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.4 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18c6…a4dbbacked No | 66c | 519$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.97 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked No | 65c | 493.19$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.57 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed No | 65c | 480$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.7 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Yes | 34c | 398.88$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.26 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc576…49bcbacked Yes | 34c | 352.94$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.94 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 40cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…763bbacked Yes | 35c | 284.6$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.61 | 337 | 48.1%162 W · 175 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed No | 59c | 254.94$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.87 | 369 | 54.7%202 W · 167 L | +28.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe47c…3afabacked Yes | 37c | 241.91$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.91 | 233 | 42.9%100 W · 133 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c0…2713backed Yes | 43c | 222.93$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1495…d3f9backed Yes | 48c | 208.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.83 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…18b4backed Yes | 34c | 202.73$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +197.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c7…4e5bbacked Yes | 35c | 176$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…3206backed Yes | 37c | 173.65$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…c39dbacked Yes | 35c | 154.82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked No | 65c | 130$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 447 | 47%210 W · 237 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bc…42c1backed No | 66c | 106.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e56…8243backed No | 65c | 101.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.29 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -7.3wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbb21…3138backed No | 66c | 91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed No | 65c | 83.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…031ebacked Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 233 | 49.4%115 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cd…da0dbacked Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69e…3393backed Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…439ebacked No | 65c | 57.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed No | 67c | 55.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 294 | 49.7%146 W · 148 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 70c | 51.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 447 | 40.7%182 W · 265 L | -27.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fb…1c4abacked Yes | 35c | 48.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Yes | 42c | 47.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 525 | 52%273 W · 252 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc97…7172backed Yes | 43c | 45.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…cb64backed No | 71c | 42.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3088…2391backed No | 65c | 41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa535…9e5ebacked No | 65c | 38.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 140 | 49.3%69 W · 71 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…e671backed No | 65c | 36.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed No | 65c | 31.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 387 | 51.2%198 W · 189 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43aa…93e7backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 155 | 62.6%97 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…388abacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f75…cc2abacked Yes | 43c | 25.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 361 | 53.5%193 W · 168 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…c84cbacked Yes | 45c | 24.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 55c | 24.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed No | 65c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 261 | 47.1%123 W · 138 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked No | 62c | 21.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed No | 65c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 270 | 50%135 W · 135 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba17…5c67backed No | 66c | 17.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71b7…adb1backed No | 72c | 17.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6594…6593backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 72c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-0.5)Thunder won
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 0.5No won
- Luguentz Dort: Assists O/U 0.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Spurs (-11.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Spurs (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Thunder vs. SpursThunder won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 105.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 207.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: Odd/Even ScoreOdd won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: Team to Score FirstSpurs won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.