TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,982
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,478

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,982 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5b5f…3397backed Yes46c1,610$735 inWon+$874.679044.4%40 W · 50 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked No55c800$440 inLost-$44039265.1%255 W · 137 L+31.0wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2374…a426backed Yes46c543.27$250 inWon+$293.2714443.8%63 W · 81 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No53c500$265 inLost-$26590863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No47c442.39$209 inLost-$208.861,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x13a9…e573backed No40c350$141 inLost-$140.9612347.2%58 W · 65 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked No62c324.99$201 inLost-$201.55358.5%31 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7200…9299backed No53c299.98$160 inLost-$159.5936954.7%202 W · 167 L+28.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1252…e6e0backed Yes54c259.26$140 inWon+$119.264949%24 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb0e…90a1backed Yes38c219.73$83 inWon+$136.232272.7%16 W · 6 L+4.7wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+44%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdb25…03e5backed Yes51c196.67$100 inWon+$96.672466.7%16 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+23.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3c7…0682backed Yes28c150$42 inWon+$1082128.6%6 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2436…1ea3backed Yes38c105.26$40 inWon+$65.26333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed No43c104.98$45 inLost-$45.1479650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7df9…3a84backed No55c102.99$57 inLost-$56.533470.6%24 W · 10 L+5.4wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+23.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe768…b331backed No55c100$55 inLost-$5539864.3%256 W · 142 L+33.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No48c100$48 inLost-$4885449.4%422 W · 432 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No56c89.93$50 inLost-$50.4219555.4%108 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked No56c79.27$44 inLost-$44.3992058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed No46c74.8$34 inLost-$34.4119352.8%102 W · 91 L+11.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e6f…cb64backed No60c65.98$39 inLost-$39.272560%15 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf72…af1abacked Yes47c61.59$29 inWon+$32.592050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed No52c60$31 inLost-$30.933556.7%190 W · 145 L+26.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No53c59.98$32 inLost-$31.7943752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69dd…30a2backed Yes47c42.98$20 inWon+$22.98560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes66c42.64$28 inWon+$14.656764.2%43 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed No46c41.98$19 inLost-$19.3126755.1%147 W · 120 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed No53c40.27$21 inLost-$21.4996956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13db…2523backed No57c35.08$20 inLost-$201735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf89…0fb1backed No57c34.9$20 inLost-$203554.3%19 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5d2…ae70backed Yes43c25.81$11 inWon+$14.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c69…e671backed No56c24.13$14 inLost-$13.516051.7%31 W · 29 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6752…25c2backed Yes51c20$10 inWon+$9.86547.7%31 W · 34 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked No55c20$11 inLost-$111,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed No55c20$11 inLost-$1156043.9%246 W · 314 L-31.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed No53c19.99$11 inLost-$10.593342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.