NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3095c42bfb9d97a11943d01dc1cf9357521aac4147cdb9667f390090b52c7ca0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Over | 53c | 24,238$12,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,420.82 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 47c | 11,277$5,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,300 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…5122backed Under | 47c | 6,254$2,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,939.53 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -5.6wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Under | 47c | 3,424$1,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,609.39 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 47c | 3,314$1,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,571.07 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Over | 52c | 3,014$1,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,456.71 | 443 | 37.9%168 W · 275 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 15c | 2,781$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.15 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5d…191dbacked Under | 47c | 1,655$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.04 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Under | 48c | 1,506$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.02 | 102 | 56.9%58 W · 44 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 49c | 1,199$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.64 | 210 | 46.2%97 W · 113 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 46c | 895.39$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.88 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 46c | 773.11$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.46 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 47c | 609.94$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.7 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 53c | 603.68$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.24 | 253 | 52.6%133 W · 120 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Under | 15c | 492$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 205 | 58.5%120 W · 85 L | +19.6wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x690d…70adbacked Under | 47c | 473.39$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 53c | 450.3$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.64 | 600 | 49.8%299 W · 301 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2df…ca29backed Under | 48c | 409.63$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.55 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Over | 55c | 360.95$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.26 | 228 | 44.7%102 W · 126 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…0412backed Over | 54c | 325$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.5 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 53c | 313.83$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 568 | 43.8%249 W · 319 L | -25.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Over | 55c | 309.91$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.91 | 219 | 50.2%110 W · 109 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Under | 49c | 295.29$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.69 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 52c | 233.84$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.24 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fac…b89abacked Over | 54c | 225.93$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.93 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9794…32c9backed Over | 53c | 218.16$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.54 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 14c | 136.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +21.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0580…f78bbacked Under | 15c | 133$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf72…af1abacked Over | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Over | 55c | 129.6$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 294 | 49.7%146 W · 148 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5955…f86ebacked Under | 47c | 110.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under | 42c | 109.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 47c | 108.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ce…dd2ebacked Under | 47c | 107.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Over | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 400 | 53.5%214 W · 186 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bea…c4b2backed Under | 15c | 80.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Over | 68c | 79.55$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 47c | 76.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe79…296fbacked Over | 55c | 68.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 54c | 64.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 428 | 42.5%182 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 60c | 52.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 403 | 44.4%179 W · 224 L | -23.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 25c | 39.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Over | 64c | 32.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 156 | 62.8%98 W · 58 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2174…fad8backed Over | 54c | 20.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x114d…3b5fbacked Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa538…1ee9backed Over | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-0.5)Thunder won
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 0.5No won
- Luguentz Dort: Assists O/U 0.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Spurs (-11.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Spurs (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Thunder vs. SpursThunder won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 105.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 207.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: Odd/Even ScoreOdd won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: Team to Score FirstSpurs won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.