TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Spurs (-0.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Thunderof Spurs, Thunder
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,349
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,302

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,349 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9495…9a27backed Thunder46c1,930$881 inWon+$1,049.0369848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Spurs53c1,111$591 inLost-$591.2316147.2%76 W · 85 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd9d…84b6backed Spurs53c900$477 inLost-$477666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Thunder46c740.74$341 inWon+$40050346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f5…c161backed Spurs54c740.74$400 inLost-$40011440.4%46 W · 68 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2df…ca29backed Thunder47c570.57$270 inWon+$300.1517247.7%82 W · 90 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Spurs51c514.04$262 inLost-$262.1632846.6%153 W · 175 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Thunder49c500$245 inWon+$25561638.5%237 W · 379 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Spurs53c178.14$94 inLost-$9413153.4%70 W · 61 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Thunder48c124.95$60 inWon+$65.41,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Thunder49c39.08$19 inWon+$19.9384443%363 W · 481 L-40.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x970f…f167backed Spurs56c35.71$20 inLost-$205556.4%31 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Thunder44c35.71$16 inWon+$204,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Thunder45c23.33$10 inWon+$12.8355444.4%246 W · 308 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xece7…3353backed Thunder49c21$10 inWon+$10.712740.7%11 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.