TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$844
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$842

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $844 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3cc5…838abacked Yes42c298.23$127 inLost-$126.641330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-3.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb888…f103backed No56c122.45$69 inWon+$53.881338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No59c100$59 inWon+$4185449.4%422 W · 432 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac65…cfe6backed No60c85.57$51 inWon+$34.573473.5%25 W · 9 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick59cpaid+28.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0249…f039backed Yes41c73.17$30 inLost-$30540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No57c67.75$39 inWon+$29.2143752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No64c46.83$30 inWon+$16.9419555.4%108 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ec9…02f6backed No58c42.76$25 inWon+$17.763327.3%9 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f03…ed48backed Yes44c42.43$19 inLost-$18.671662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+22.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb431…b654backed Yes44c41.95$18 inLost-$18.461947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56c2…1618backed Yes44c38.07$17 inLost-$16.752263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+38.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x085b…ab9fbacked Yes35c31.53$11 inLost-$10.949941.4%41 W · 58 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No58c28.6$17 inWon+$11.9533356.2%187 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed No59c21.56$13 inWon+$8.8440546.9%190 W · 215 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.