TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,230
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,242

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,230 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x233f…405ebacked Yes44c1,358$598 inLost-$597.551070%7 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick68cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1543…baafbacked No56c1,335$748 inWon+$587.3312741.7%53 W · 74 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fe5…f419backed Yes47c410.98$194 inLost-$194.24966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed No53c333$176 inWon+$156.5122656.6%128 W · 98 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5159…d7aebacked Yes44c281.54$124 inLost-$124.426147.5%29 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes49c215.47$105 inLost-$104.8584443%363 W · 481 L-40.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x13c9…5e53backed Yes45c200$90 inLost-$9030544.6%136 W · 169 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No51c200$102 inWon+$9878652.4%412 W · 374 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8fd…3e24backed No55c192$106 inWon+$86.41952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d970backed No55c182.08$100 inWon+$81.9410843.5%47 W · 61 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8d9…df36backed Yes44c126.5$56 inLost-$55.640053.5%214 W · 186 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x804f…13abbacked No56c125.1$70 inWon+$55.14942.9%21 W · 28 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-21.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed Yes47c85.64$40 inLost-$40.2526659%157 W · 109 L+12.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2200…2640backed No53c85.64$45 inWon+$40.251250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e8…6e04backed No52c69.6$36 inWon+$33.416132.8%20 W · 41 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35c9…bc74backed Yes48c62.5$30 inLost-$3034661.6%213 W · 133 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x71b7…adb1backed No57c35.09$20 inWon+$15.092748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9785…2c5abacked No57c35$20 inWon+$15.054949%24 W · 25 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+26.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5961…56dbbacked No52c33$17 inWon+$15.8437848.9%185 W · 193 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85ee…79a9backed No56c26.67$15 inWon+$11.673351.5%17 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58db…5c36backed No56c26.48$15 inWon+$11.651040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x170c…7fe3backed No56c20$11 inWon+$8.838048.7%185 W · 195 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed No52c19.99$10 inWon+$9.5996956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.