TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Knicksof Cavaliers, Knicks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$43,500
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$53,124

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,500 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa080…234fbacked Cavaliers50c13,827$6,914 inLost-$6,913.6214842.6%63 W · 85 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Cavaliers51c8,500$4,335 inLost-$4,334.9812056.7%68 W · 52 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Knicks50c8,370$4,185 inWon+$4,185.087445.9%34 W · 40 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Knicks49c8,278$4,056 inWon+$4,221.786,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca28…49debacked Cavaliers51c6,041$3,080 inLost-$3,080.142850%14 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed Knicks50c5,043$2,521 inWon+$2,521.7418651.1%95 W · 91 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Knicks49c4,000$1,972 inWon+$2,027.8630351.8%157 W · 146 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Cavaliers50c1,703$855 inLost-$854.9125352.6%133 W · 120 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c49…03d0backed Knicks49c1,445$708 inWon+$737.151060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b43…c5cbbacked Knicks49c1,445$708 inWon+$736.95666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd2f…37ddbacked Knicks51c1,371$697 inWon+$673.7314039.3%55 W · 85 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Cavaliers48c570.12$274 inLost-$273.664,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0dc…586cbacked Cavaliers51c509.8$260 inLost-$26028838.2%110 W · 178 L-17.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Knicks49c440$216 inWon+$224.462051.1%317 W · 303 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac2…727bbacked Knicks50c400$200 inWon+$2002536%9 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2df…ca29backed Knicks49c335.67$164 inWon+$171.1917247.7%82 W · 90 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed Cavaliers51c300$153 inLost-$15317551.4%90 W · 85 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Knicks49c215.53$106 inWon+$109.9215759.2%93 W · 64 L+9.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+18.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa313…e124backed Knicks50c202$101 inWon+$1014742.6%20 W · 27 L-5.2wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-19%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3df8…3ee8backed Cavaliers51c193.41$99 inLost-$98.645952.5%31 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe665…79bbbacked Knicks52c193.1$100 inWon+$93.13943.6%17 W · 22 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-21.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Cavaliers35c127.23$44 inLost-$44.3925039.6%99 W · 151 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75be…3bbabacked Knicks49c108.55$53 inWon+$55.36580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+34.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf35e…f846backed Cavaliers51c98.04$50 inLost-$507356.2%41 W · 32 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Cavaliers49c81.35$40 inLost-$40.261,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Knicks49c64$31 inWon+$32.6418653.2%99 W · 87 L+9.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Cavaliers51c60.1$31 inLost-$30.6560049.8%299 W · 301 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca29…a1d0backed Knicks50c50.72$26 inWon+$25.1510752.3%56 W · 51 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x375f…b494backed Cavaliers51c42.63$22 inLost-$21.742646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5184…d17abacked Knicks65c29.23$19 inWon+$10.232268.2%15 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Knicks51c24.5$12 inWon+$1214355.2%79 W · 64 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed Knicks50c24$12 inWon+$1221843.6%95 W · 123 L-15.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xed06…3612backed Cavaliers51c23$12 inLost-$11.78650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Knicks49c22.2$11 inWon+$11.3255444.4%246 W · 308 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.