NBA · resolved market
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 27.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde0ab93e82ffd7eb3a363064b2a69853f0f16970cfad6824f7445780b3fd4d5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea3d…524dbacked Yes | 50c | 4,108$2,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,054 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 50c | 1,685$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.62 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…4bb0backed No | 50c | 1,553$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.6 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 49c | 1,311$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.83 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91dd…2730backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906b…9805backed Yes | 51c | 986.27$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed No | 50c | 944$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed No | 50c | 918.78$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.39 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 48c | 706.68$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.54 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…9cfbbacked Yes | 50c | 642.93$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…920fbacked Yes | 51c | 592.93$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf72…af1abacked Yes | 50c | 514$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…672ebacked Yes | 51c | 485.02$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.79 | 137 | 59.9%82 W · 55 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 50c | 425.93$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.44 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…c9e4backed No | 50c | 320$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x291d…2f8bbacked Yes | 52c | 282.56$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…559abacked No | 49c | 254.98$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.04 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Yes | 50c | 205$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 175 | 51.4%90 W · 85 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 51c | 202.67$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.24 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0129…e3c9backed Yes | 49c | 201.92$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.94 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fd…a91ebacked Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked No | 57c | 176.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.22 | 241 | 59.8%144 W · 97 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Yes | 43c | 168.62$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.24 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed No | 50c | 153$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 361 | 53.5%193 W · 168 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd424…bf7bbacked Yes | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked No | 49c | 130$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 447 | 47%210 W · 237 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e46…a831backed Yes | 55c | 90.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30eb…7868backed Yes | 50c | 80.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…68a0backed Yes | 50c | 79.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 153 | 51%78 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c9…bc74backed No | 55c | 54.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 346 | 61.6%213 W · 133 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a67…52edbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed No | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 155 | 62.6%97 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Yes | 46c | 48.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked No | 45c | 45.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 99 | 41.4%41 W · 58 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed No | 54c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97c…b49abacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f6…ef41backed Yes | 50c | 25.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 525 | 52%273 W · 252 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c7…4e5bbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0139…a7c3backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x31c9…641fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 115 | 55.7%64 W · 51 L | +10.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 27.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Knicks won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5No won
- Knicks vs. CavaliersKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 204.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 215.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5Over won
- OG Anunoby: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-9.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.