NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a0def5edc5111acb5e674fa8538df3dd91602da7fde1257966f85e8e27d093a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Knicksof Cavaliers, Knicks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 14c | 4,388$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.38 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Cavaliers | 9c | 3,249$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.15 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Cavaliers | 23c | 2,006$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.41 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Cavaliers | 30c | 744.36$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.31 | 726 | 48.3%351 W · 375 L | +30.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cavaliers | 14c | 719.28$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.86 | 538 | 42%226 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Knicks | 69c | 700$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23f9…3c2dbacked Cavaliers | 31c | 677$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.87 | 186 | 43.5%81 W · 105 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf753…8d2fbacked Knicks | 72c | 425.77$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd032…5136backed Knicks | 71c | 422.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.54 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Cavaliers | 12c | 410.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 1,341 | 29.9%401 W · 940 L | -53.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed Knicks | 70c | 290$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 136 | 44.1%60 W · 76 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed Cavaliers | 33c | 276.09$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 178 | 48.3%86 W · 92 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Knicks | 78c | 266$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.27 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97a1…d1eebacked Knicks | 70c | 221.43$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.78 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cavaliers | 31c | 191.01$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.21 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fc…db71backed Knicks | 80c | 187.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Knicks | 70c | 178$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 253 | 52.6%133 W · 120 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Cavaliers | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.10per pick | 9cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Cavaliers | 27c | 161.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 428 | 42.5%182 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fb…2de9backed Knicks | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f9…7368backed Knicks | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Cavaliers | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 271 | 38.7%105 W · 166 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ab…8432backed Cavaliers | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Knicks | 69c | 123.71$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…643cbacked Knicks | 68c | 89.69$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | -18.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked Cavaliers | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 405 | 48.4%196 W · 209 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…a330backed Knicks | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -5.8wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -28%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc2…a485backed Cavaliers | 31c | 60.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Cavaliers | 31c | 57.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Cavaliers | 23c | 57.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 160 | 33.1%53 W · 107 L | -17.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -43%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed Cavaliers | 32c | 55.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Knicks | 69c | 49.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 199 | 59.3%118 W · 81 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Knicks | 69c | 44.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 218 | 43.6%95 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Cavaliers | 28c | 42.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cf…1025backed Cavaliers | 32c | 40.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Cavaliers | 28c | 38.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Cavaliers | 31c | 34.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 620 | 51.1%317 W · 303 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Knicks | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac04…e6e0backed Knicks | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Knicks won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5No won
- Knicks vs. CavaliersKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 204.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 215.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5Over won
- OG Anunoby: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-9.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.