NBA · resolved market
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 109.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e5b21c43d820e779333dd150c533937ffd975107d4d3ae964f0fd167646c123
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Under | 48c | 10,058$4,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,796.49 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Over | 52c | 8,812$4,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,229.69 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe156…134bbacked Over | 56c | 1,865$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.17 | 112 | 35.7%40 W · 72 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Under | 51c | 719.61$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 683.89$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.12 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 600.13$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.06 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Over | 53c | 495$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.65 | 493 | 45.2%223 W · 270 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2df…ca29backed Over | 51c | 446.34$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.45 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Under | 51c | 377.8$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.68 | 228 | 44.7%102 W · 126 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…0412backed Over | 57c | 342.62$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.33 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd021…12b5backed Over | 46c | 315.2$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.21 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fac…b89abacked Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 49c | 198.53$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.08 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…3e24backed Under | 54c | 192$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.68 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7987…884abacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 258 | 50%129 W · 129 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf72…af1abacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 43c | 172.34$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.11 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 30c | 169.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…4ffebacked Over | 72c | 156.23$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Over | 54c | 126.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 361 | 53.5%193 W · 168 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 52c | 113.19$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.33 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d970backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Over | 53c | 105$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ca…780cbacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 367 | 49.6%182 W · 185 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 463 | 46.4%215 W · 248 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 199 | 59.3%118 W · 81 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 66c | 48.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Over | 55c | 45.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 387 | 51.2%198 W · 189 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 49c | 44.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x970f…f167backed Over | 69c | 43.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf80…b6e3backed Under | 51c | 31.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 403 | 44.4%179 W · 224 L | -23.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Under | 44c | 26.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 443 | 37.9%168 W · 275 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…411fbacked Under | 51c | 24.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.37per pick | 50cpaid | -76%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked Over | 55c | 18.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 109.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Knicks won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5No won
- Knicks vs. CavaliersKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 204.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 215.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5Over won
- OG Anunoby: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-9.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.