NBA · resolved market
James Harden: Points O/U 18.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdca2e247db703ee1d7be7767448825e0556e39f48f4ae9e141ba9bbc084389b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 49c | 1,577$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.7 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 49c | 785.79$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.47 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ee…b517backed Yes | 52c | 771.93$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.93 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 57c | 725.72$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.64 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60da…a14ebacked Yes | 52c | 572.69$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.86 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2374…a426backed Yes | 51c | 461.22$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 48c | 455.85$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.25 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 42c | 433.55$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.09 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4031…92c8backed Yes | 52c | 385.7$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.7 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906b…9805backed Yes | 51c | 320.47$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.03 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed No | 50c | 282$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…559abacked No | 49c | 237$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.13 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe299…761bbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -15.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39bb…8d44backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7987…884abacked Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 258 | 50%129 W · 129 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…add4backed Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 47c | 182.89$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.96 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…588cbacked No | 50c | 166$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 223 | 51.6%115 W · 108 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed No | 50c | 143$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 361 | 53.5%193 W · 168 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked No | 49c | 125$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 447 | 47%210 W · 237 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3e…ab88backed Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 45c | 75.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…68a0backed Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 153 | 51%78 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 199 | 59.3%118 W · 81 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…77abbacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 849 | 57.6%489 W · 360 L | -52.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc78b…5c76backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -9.1wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b0…fd60backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 48c | 29.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 333 | 56.2%187 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed No | 43c | 28.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -7.8wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…d0d4backed Yes | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…7384backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c7…4e5bbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- James Harden: Points O/U 18.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Knicks won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5No won
- Knicks vs. CavaliersKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 204.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 215.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5Over won
- OG Anunoby: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-9.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.