TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,589
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,594

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,589 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xea3d…524dbacked Yes61c1,900$1,159 inWon+$740.991163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked No39c974.36$380 inLost-$38027746.6%129 W · 148 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked No39c487$190 inLost-$189.9345445.2%205 W · 249 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No38c161.29$61 inLost-$61.292,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb1b…09f8backed Yes62c161.29$100 inWon+$61.29966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13a9…e573backed No39c131.59$51 inLost-$51.3212347.2%58 W · 65 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4d3…4b1fbacked No39c130$51 inLost-$50.77751.9%40 W · 37 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea3…129bbacked No59c120.54$71 inLost-$71.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked No39c115$45 inLost-$44.8544747%210 W · 237 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb52e…cdcebacked Yes61c82.41$50 inWon+$32.147353.4%39 W · 34 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d38…6f08backed Yes57c73.26$42 inWon+$31.511852.5%62 W · 56 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No37c52.35$19 inLost-$19.4953842%226 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd755…61a1backed Yes20c51.94$10 inWon+$41.554037.5%15 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fd6…d4a0backed No39c50$20 inLost-$19.53464.7%22 W · 12 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+23.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8361…283ebacked Yes61c38.77$24 inWon+$15.12837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Yes60c30$18 inWon+$1241227.4%113 W · 299 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+94.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b44…6e8dbacked Yes67c29.85$20 inWon+$9.857561.3%46 W · 29 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.